u/KaXiaM

Some of y’all killed it last year, so let’s do it again. What are your predictions, hot takes and thoughts about the upcoming season? Not only the Texans, but our division or even the league in general, fans, or even the state this sub? ;)

Let’s see who’s getting killed today, but validated in February!

Apparently he’s now 3rd highest paid LB and met Caley when he was in high school!

Some excerpts:

During a watershed, life-changing moment for Al-Shaair and his family as he celebrated a three-year $54 million contract extension that includes $32.5 million fully guaranteed in new money and $45.75 million total guaranteed, the Pro Bowl selection reflected on the hard moments of the past. Al-Shaair grabbed his seven siblings to save them. Their last semblance of stability melted down to soot and ashes.

Raised by his mother, Naadhirah Lennon, Al-Shaair and his siblings dealt with significant hardships. They moved into a budget, extended-stay motel. Al-Shaair didn’t want recruiters to know about his circumstances, so he preferred college football coaches to meet with him away from the motel, including Florida Atlantic assistant coach Nick Caley, who’s now the Texans’ offensive coordinator.

As Al-Shaair discussed the various trials and adversities he’s experienced, he didn’t speak about them with regret.

If anything, he was glad for what he has and what he endured.

After watching your childhood home burn to the ground, or injuring his knee as a senior and watching his draft stock plummet to, now, becoming an anchoring force as a team captain of the top-ranked defense in the NFL and a leader in the community, his rough upbringing gave him invaluable perspective and resolve.

“I’m truly, truly grateful,” said Al-Shaair while thanking Cal McNair and Hannah McNair, Ryans, defensive coordinator Matt Burke and linebackers coach Bill Davis, his longtime agent Jason Chayut of Sportstars and his extended family. “It really does feel surreal. Everything that I went through to be at this point. I wanted to be here. I didn’t want to be anywhere else. I couldn’t see myself going anywhere else.

“I’m grateful to my agent, Jason Chayut for taking a chance on me back when I was coming out of college with a torn ACL and not pretty, not the hottest linebacker you want to get. He took a chance on me and we’ve worked together now going on eight years, four different contracts later. I see you like family. My family, they’re my support system and they love me regardless of how many tackles I make or what I do. I wouldn’t be able to be here without them.”

“I just wanted to be myself: be authentically me,” Al-Shaair said. “Obviously, as a football player on the field I try to show the abilities that I have to be a tone-setter. Get guys organized, lined up, communication, all those different things. Off the field, just connecting with the guys, understanding that the relationships that you build, it makes you push a lot harder when you are doing it for your brothers.

“Truthfully, I just wanted to be authentically myself and I always felt like if I got the opportunity to be at a place and show everybody who I was, then things would go well for the team and myself. I’m grateful for that.”

An $18 million average per year compensation boost from 12th in linebacker average per year compensation to third in the NFL behind the San Francisco 49ers’ Fred Warner ($21 million) and the Baltimore Ravens’ Roquan Smith ($20 million). Previously, Al-Shaair was at $11.3 million in terms of average per year.

Texans general manager Nick Caserio and Chayut worked on this contract for three months.

The deal includes $35.25 million fully guaranteed for skill, injury and salary cap in terms of new money and $45.75 million total guaranteed.

After recording a team-high 103 tackles, a career-high two interceptions and a career-high nine passes defensed, Al-Shaair isn’t resting on his laurels. He wants to keep improving and he wants the Texans to get even better on defense and as a team after three consecutive AFC divisional round defeats.

True to form, Al-Shaair was working out at Reliant Stadium as a fixture in the Texans’ offseason workout program when he got the good news from his agent.

He was late for Davis’ position meeting because the deal was being finalized.

“Billy is my guy, but I get in the meeting and he’s like, ‘Oh man, oh man, what are you coming in late for?’” Al-Shaair said. “He’s just giving me a hard time. I’m just cheesing the whole time. I’m not even listening to half the stuff he’s saying, I’m just like, ‘Uh huh. Uh huh.’ I’m just smiling. I just couldn’t stop smiling.

“I tried to call my mom, she was asleep. By the time I got to talk to everybody and everythig, it didn’t feel real, truthfully, until today. There’s no way it’s real. I did sign it, so it is official. If something happens to me now, take care of my mama for me. That’s where I was at.”

Al-Shaair has built a special relationship with the McNair family and their son, Calhoun.

He’ll never forget how they stood behind him during the Lawrence controversy.

“This family has been like my own family,” Al-Shaair said. “I always tell them, ‘You didn’t have to put yourself in front of a speeding bullet for me.’ I feel like the way that they had my back and every chance that they had to speak on my behalf, speak to my character, every time they saw me just pouring into me, trying to make sure I was doing well. Cal told me his father told him, ‘You can never go wrong doing what’s right.’

“That’s something that I think I’ll probably keep with me for the rest of my life. There was countless conversations that I had with them that just reassured me as a person because obviously there’s a business side to this and then there’s a personal side.I’m just grateful that I’m here and I have the relationship that I have with them. Calhoun, [Cal McNair’s] son, I tell him he’s like my nephew.”

“I think that’s what I try to do. Be really insightful, be really detailed on how I’m interacting with people and be authentic. I think that’s the biggest thing because at the end of the day, we’re all human.”

Interesting story from the Chronicle. It confirms that it was WAJ who wanted a shorter contract (obviously). Some excerpts:

Conversations on a new extension began just before the NFL combine in February, one league source told the Chronicle. Caserio called Nicole Lynn (Anderson’s agent) first to begin the negotiations.  

“I think we kind of all knew it was time for him to get paid,” Lynn said. 

The previous season, Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons set the market at $46.5 million per year. Lions edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson was right behind him at $45 million per year. 

But Anderson’s deal, which averages $50 million in new money for three years, blew those numbers out of the water. The terms of the agreement were among the biggest concessions Houston made. Instead of signing Anderson to a four- or five-year deal, which is standard across the league for players graduating from their rookie deals, Anderson’s team made it a point for it to be a three-year contract extension, a league source told the Chronicle. That way he can get back to the negotiating table earlier when he is still at the height of his game. Agents like to negotiate shorter-term deals for their most-talented clients.

Lynn also negotiated a no-trade clause in Anderson's contract, which is rare for defensive players. The only other defensive player known to have a no-trade clause in their contract is Garrett, who is also represented by Lynn.

Anderson didn’t want to receive any updates during the negotiations because he didn’t want it to seem he was pushing back against the Texans.

Several agents and one former team executive who have negotiated deals with Caserio, said the Texans’ general manager has a tendency to pay over market value when extending his own players. These people were not suggesting that the Texans overpaid for Anderson, but none were shocked his new contract reached $50 million per year. 

The previous season, Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons set the market at $46.5 million per year. Lions edge rusher Aiden Hutchinson was right behind him at $45 million per year. 

But Anderson’s deal, which averages $50 million in new money for three years, blew those numbers out of the water. The terms of the agreement were among the biggest concessions Houston made. Instead of signing Anderson to a four- or five-year deal, which is standard across the league for players graduating from their rookie deals, Anderson’s team made it a point for it to be a three-year contract extension, a league source told the Chronicle. That way he can get back to the negotiating table earlier when he is still at the height of his game. Agents like to negotiate shorter-term deals for their most-talented clients.

Lynn also negotiated a no-trade clause in Anderson's contract, which is rare for defensive players. The only other defensive player known to have a no-trade clause in their contract is Garrett, who is also represented by Lynn.

Lynn suggested that in giving Anderson the deal he received, Caserio and Texans ownership want to do right by the players. 

“You can feel that,” she said. “With Nick, starting the deal early, I think for him was showing Will the belief the organization has in him long-term."

ESPN polled league executives and others around the NFL about what they would do if they were in Houston's shoes, and the responses ranged from "They gotta pay him" to "Wait."

Years 2 and 3 didn't replicate similar production for Stroud, with his latest playoff performances leaving much to be desired after seven turnovers in two games.

Ryans said he doesn't "discuss contracts publicly." But league executives feel like paying him is inevitable because life with a talented quarterback is always better than being in quarterback purgatory.

"I think he's plenty talented. I just think just running a more efficient offense would justify the payday," an AFC executive told ESPN. "I think everyone [I talk to] feels like you gotta pay him. Low bar for the position.

"It also could save you money if you extend him [now], because the market always goes up."

"Offer him something like top 8-12 [QB] money," an NFC executive said. "I'd try to give him a three-year extension at like $42-45 million per year now. Or plan to franchise him out like Dak Prescott in 2020."

The NFC executive believes Stroud and his management team -- led by agent David Mulugheta of Athletes First -- would reject the 8-12 deal. The executive said he would be willing to increase the offer to strike a deal, and if that failed, just prepare to use the franchise tag if needed in 2028.

Despite knowing that Stroud is a "playoff quarterback" that can win you games, a second AFC executive thinks Houston should wait on extending him.

"It hasn't been perfect," the second AFC executive told ESPN. "That defense has carried a lot, $25 million isn't crazy for the [fifth-year] option, so you keep your leverage, get another year of info on durability, production, mental toughness, all of it."

Another AFC executive believes Stroud has to prove he can carry a team before receiving the extension because of how it will impact the Texans' roster financially.

"This is about whether you're convinced he's a long-term top-tier QB worth 22% of the cap," the third AFC executive told ESPN. "The smart play is to pick up the fifth-year option, invest heavily in the offensive line and stabilize the run game so you're evaluating him in a clean structure."

"It's hard to say 'pay him' after how the year ended," another NFC executive said. "They don't have to. They have another year to do it.

"They might end up paying more because the numbers will go up. But you also have another year of information: 'Is he getting better in the second year in the offense? How is he doing? Is he healthy?' And maybe it costs you $2, 3, 5 million extra a year, but you're also not tied to that like what happened with Tua."

The NFC executive added that while waiting could cost you more financially, if Stroud performs up to his capabilities, then there's no issues. Because if he's paid and doesn't produce, "it becomes debilitating for the franchise, and the next thing you know someone else is running the franchise."

"[Waiting] lets him bet on himself too, which is what you want from the guy," the second AFC executive said. "No need to come close to resetting the market prematurely."

One scout doesn't think an extension is coming, but there's risk on both sides.

"If he goes back to rookie C.J., he'll get 65 [million per year]," an AFC scout said, "but if he plays like last two years, then what?"