Login

u/Jawquin

▲ 1 r/Daytrading

Hello everyone, and I wish you all a productive session.

Looking at the EURUSD pair, during our last session (prior to the two-week break), I shared that I would be looking for short positions from the 0.618 Fib level / Red Box zone. Following that touch, the price reacted and initiated a descent as expected. However, the fact that the price is currently dropping within a descending channel reduces the likelihood of me holding this as a long-term swing position.

https://preview.redd.it/9xeajo5ze9zg1.png?width=2475&format=png&auto=webp&s=9af38fb1d90ed7e373ca643ec6b9b5e9a849e715

So, what is the game plan from here?

  • Scenario A: If the price reaches the Green Box and fails to break the channel decisively—or breaks it but quickly reclaims it—I will take significant profits on my short positions and begin building a long position.
  • Scenario B: If the channel is broken with strong momentum, I will expect the price to continue creating new lows. In this case, I will maintain my short bias for a while longer.

If the channel is broken and we do not see a reclaim, my primary targets will be the liquidity at new lows.

Wishing everyone a successful trading week!

reddit.com
u/Jawquin — 10 days ago
▲ 1 r/Daytrading

Hi everyone! Today, I want to talk about a vital confirmation factor for our entry strategies: Momentum. By tracking the speed of price movement, we can distinguish whether the market is in a healthy correction or a complete trend reversal.

https://preview.redd.it/mn9omx49d9zg1.png?width=2475&format=png&auto=webp&s=12c29597fbce56c4cf9da1c570a15d219f352fe2

We want to see the price move aggressively in our desired direction and return slowly (correctively) to our entry zone.

  • The Impulse: Price drops rapidly, showing strong sell-side delivery.
  • The Retracement: The price returns to our entry zone (e.g., the -0.618 Fib level) much more slowly than the initial decline.
  • The Continuation: This "slow grind" back to the entry zone suggests that buyers lack the strength to flip the trend, leading to a high-probability continuation of the downward move.
  • TP Probability: If you review your successful (TP) trades, you’ll notice that the price usually retraces to your entry zone with low momentum. This is a sign of "order filling" rather than a trend shift.
  • The Red Flag: If the price hits your entry zone very fast and aggressively, the likelihood of being stopped out is much higher. High-velocity moves against your bias often signal that the previous trend is exhausted.

Based on this momentum logic, we can interpret Bitcoin’s current movement as a corrective structure. The lack of aggressive "v-shape" recovery suggests we are seeing a standard retracement rather than a full-scale trend reversal at this moment.

https://preview.redd.it/1fvgfb9od9zg1.png?width=1835&format=png&auto=webp&s=99ca65d9f42becafd15fb7d56d42250d65a5b676

Trade safe and watch the speed of the candles!

reddit.com
u/Jawquin — 10 days ago