u/JWcommander217

Grandpa

Someone's grandpa is loose on TV. Doesn't he have things he needs to do? I honestly can't understand like any thing that he is saying. I might be going deaf but its just so fast and so mumbled. And my own father has parkinsons so I'm used to this a bit but ooof. No idea what's going on. Someone can hopefully clue me in later.

So yes some people brought up this move by AMD and the lack of volume. We've really sort of struggled a bit with the volume the past two days but AMD has set three different ATH's on the intraday. I think it is that lack of volume that is really preventing us from holding any of these levels. We are struggling against the market for sure and I think we are getting penalized a bit. It's hard for AMD to make this full blown sustained move higher while wearing the concrete shoes of the rest of the market and oil prices right now.

Yes the chart was really really favorable for AMD and we had that breakout. But at the end of the day we are limited by the broader Q's. The Q's snapped their what 2 week winning streak and truthfully, AMD was one of the leaders of that rally. But its all starting to slow down as we have the market recovery as we settle in for a long stalemate and higher oil prices. The next leg will be powered by an enduring peace which frankly seems VERY VERY out of reach. Iran has planned for this scenario and ONLY this exact scenario for 40 years straight and they have custom solutions specifically targeted and optimized for this exact scenario. We have a dynamic military that has to respond to various threats all over the world. It's just going to be a long long slog. Unless we can get a big peace deal which I don't understand how that really works. Iran will be emboldened more than ever that all their prep works. We've created a new world power and that person is an absolute insane person who destabilizes every regional conflict they can with their support of terrorism. I don't see how that gets solved soon.

Soooooooo AAPL ehhhhhh? Interesting move. Hardware guy. Not a visionary. Is he going to have a "big idea" or is he going to push AAPL to start to make their own hardware??? Or do you think there is an opportunity to call and measure the new guy and see if there are new partnerships available? Think there is a chance AMD might be able to develop a custom rack solution to AAPL???? I know that they seem to be really concerned about the available DRAM supplies. Do you think AAPL might look into a new memory solution and leave more openings for just pure compute power? They love their M-series chips but in theory we could deliver the rest? I dunno just spitballing. This is going to be the biggest thing the market is trying to get its hands on for the next couple weeks.

Also someone on CNBC said this and its true. AAPL is about to have a MONSTER quarter. CEO's like Cook don't step down unless they know there is going to be a huge quarter. They want to go out on a high note. Earnings on 4/30----guarantee its a significant beat!

Goooood lord

Can I guy just get a break???? Ceasefire???? nahhhh lets put a couple rounds into the engine compartment of a vessel. I mean I get the Trump Admin's position. They want the strait open but don't want Iran exporting oil until a broader deal is reached. But I mean can foreign vessels still call on Iranian ports??? If so then kinda same difference who cares. But like so many other things it appears to be all performative.

AMD looks in the pre-market that it might be getting ready to surge again. AMD set a new ATH Friday but most of the broader rally was sucked up by the rest of the market. AMD didn't get singled out for attention as people were all running to put money to work in other places. If we are seeing the market punch new lows, AMD could start to get some solo attention again which would be very very good for this rally.

In other news I will be out of town next week for a conference on AI in Chicago. Soooooooooooo you know what happens when I travel. Could AMD punch its ticket for $300????? A pre-earnings rally from these levels definitely opens up a 10%+/- rally as in the cards.

Keeping this short

Gonna keep it short bc I was up at 4 am to run a 5k with my wife bc I love her and I hate myself apparently. She loves to run. I hate to run. I'm exhausted and old. But gooood lord did I cook yesterday or what?

At the open I bought 5 option contracts for $260 strike for Nov bc like my post yesterday said, it looks like all the indicators are signaling a breakout for AMD it was the price that hasn't caught up. That divergence signaled that AMD was primed for a move higher AND GOOOOD LORD did we get it. Might close it today might now unsure. But with oil dropping I gotta say I think the entire market is set to move higher. AMD might not capture the lions share of attention like it did yesterday but I do think we could be looking at another 3-4% rally just from the market as a whole on this news.

I might at least trim here to get my initial stake back and consider selling some OTM calls at like $300 or something against the remaining position and settle in for summer rally into earnings.

Multiple Indicators

So this is what I have multiple things going on with my charts. Bc different indicators and studies can tell you different things. MACD is showing momentum, RSI is overall strength of trend and is giving market buy/sell data. Color on my chart show VWAP which helps me signal churn vs real moves. So yea. now put them all together and you get????

Lets zoom out a bit and take a look at this flag that we have been forming for some months now. Almost a year. Now here is where I'm going to start saying that seeing some divergence on the other indicators is giving me signs that this is going to breakout above that trendline and end the flag. Reason??? look at MACD which shows momentum has already exceeded our last move higher from January. And RSI also has finally broken the trendline as well. Looking at the macro set up as well, tech market seems to have responded pretty well to a lot of people bargain hunting and has returned. Tech just isn't impacted that much by oil prices at this moment. Its a problem for tomorrow not today.

I think market has just assumed that yea rate cuts aren't coming but its probably a good thing bc inflation has been sticky (def not transitory). When this happens higher rates are the medicine that is prescribed but the economy slowing down also has been a concern. Welp the oil price shock has put that entire argument of should we/shouldn't we to bed now. Everyone is firm in the camp not rate hikes this year. PERIOD. So that means once crude supply gets figured out and the longer term deal is hammered out, we still will probably be dealing with the aftershocks for sometime. Bring on a recession which probably isn't that big of a concern for this market bc frankly they just don't care. Gonna have to fire people anyways bc of AI so yea don't think its going to change the calculus for this market at the time.

Also loved seeing Jensen take the gloves off and go after TPUs. Brings me back to the callback of Game of Thrones: "A lion does not concern himself with the opinion of sheep."

Is he picking a fight bc these things are a real threat into his bottom line? Is AMD excluded from this convo bc we aren't relevant or he knows he can't squash them and doesn't have as big of a lead on inference with AMD as he does with Traininup chips???? Thinking hard about that one.