I tracked 1,000 hands at a 6-deck S17 table and here's where I actually leaked EV
Been playing 3-4 sessions a week at a local Station casino. $25 min, 6-deck, S17, DAS, no RSA. Decided to log every hand for a month and compare my plays against basic strategy after the fact.
1,000 hands later, here's where I was hemorrhaging money:
Top 5 mistakes by frequency:
| Hand | Correct Play | What I Did | Times I Blew It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soft 18 vs 9 | Hit | Stood | 14 times |
| Soft 18 vs 10 | Hit | Stood | 11 times |
| 12 vs 3 | Hit | Stood | 9 times |
| A,7 vs 2 | Double | Hit | 7 times |
| 9,9 vs 9 | Stand | Split | 6 times |
Soft 18 killed me. I knew intellectually that you hit it against 9 and 10, but in the moment with $50 on the table my hands just wouldn't do it. Standing on 18 "feels safe" even when the math says otherwise.
The damage:
If each of those soft 18 mistakes costs roughly 3-4% EV per hand, and I'm making that mistake ~25 times per 1,000 hands at $25-50 average bet... that's somewhere around $30-50 in pure leaked value per 1,000 hands. Just from one hand type.
Extrapolate that over a year of regular play and it's probably $500+ left on the table from soft 18 alone.
What fixed it for me:
Drilled soft hands in isolation for two weeks. Not full sessions, just soft-hand decisions over and over until the correct play felt automatic. The hesitation on soft 18 vs 9 went away once I'd done it 200 times without real money on the line.
Anyone else track their mistakes? Curious what hands trip other people up most.