Lies, Damned Lies: WAY TOO EARLY Projected B1G Standings (Post-Portal Closure)
I made a simple projection model for the B1G based on the following methodology:
- Using the "win shares" stats from Her Hoops Stats from last season, or the last played season from injured players - multiply the win shares per playing time % from last season by that player's projected playing time % for the upcoming season.
- Each player gets a win shares % bump for their upcoming class. For instance, there's a 30% bump for freshmen-to-sophomores & 10% bumps for juniors & seniors to be. Those % bumps are based on work by Dean Oliver, Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik, etc.
- Incoming freshmen are given win share values based on playing time & recruiting rankings based on extensive work I did last year on expected freshman values. To wit, top 10 players in the class are typically much more valuable as freshman with value steeply descending from there. Sought after foreign players are treated as having top 10 value - see Fagan & Okeke for USC.
- The "5YrTrd" column indicates potential variance. These include: less than 10 players on the current roster, reliance on freshmen/mid-major transfers, new coach, etc.
- Green indicates a roster that's basically fully formed
- Yellow indicates at least one level of variability - less than 10 players, for example
- Red indicates multiple levels of variability - new coach, lots of transfers and/or freshmen, etc
- In order to solve for potential loss of playing time due to injury, the max % of playing time is capped at 75 or 30 minutes per game. For example, we know that Chat was playing 95% minutes per game last year but she did miss roughly 3 total games of PT so her total minutes % from last year was 77%.
- The first two columns, Min%- & WS%-, show what was lost from last year's team due to graduation & transfer.
- The HGT column shows the average size of the team in inches. So, USC at 73 means that the average USC player is 6'1".
- The AGE column shows the average class that the team's roster is. The higher the number, the more veteran the team is.
- The TALENT column shows the average recruiting ranking for the roster based on ESPN's rankings with 100 being the highest.
- The number in the 5YrTrd column is the average BartTorvik ranking of the last 5 years for the school.
- The final column shows the total projected win shares for the team which roughly correlates to the projected number of wins divorced from other factors like strength of schedule, etc.
- I've also included the Top 25 projected players for next season. Players in RED are high-variance players, meaning they're: freshman / returning from injury / see a major boost in playing time.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on this, particularly on anticipated playing time.
I plan on posting updates to this a few more times before the season starts, before summer workouts & after summer workouts when rosters are set.
Lemme have it!
u/Iodenchi — 3 days ago