u/Intrepid-Dress-2417

This is a theory

Why the BJP wants reelection in Tamil Nadu(To weaken ADMK):

-Everyone  has seen the past 5 days since the release of the tn election results. TVK fans happy, others totally shocked and in disarray.

- CONSTITUTIONAL QUESTION:But look at what the governor of Tn is doing, he is doing what is NOT the CONSTITUTIONAL NORM. The norm is to invite the largest party to form the gov and then a floor test happens in the assembly to see if this gov can continue, this is how it goes. While the governor has the discretion to ask for signatures, is it really ethical to create this sense of uncertainity and instability and also a move that reduces the trust of institutions such as the governor among the people

- GOVERNOR ACTIONS: Instead we see the governor take every single action that seems rather contrary to government formation. It seems his actions have the effect of not allowing a government to form which leads to re-elections. 

-You might ask what does bjp gain from re-election, sure they have to spend more money, reconsider budgets etc(The governor is from the bjp so it is fair to say he is an agent of delhi.). 

- THE EFFECT:But the real reason is : they want a tvk wave, they want a wave that weakens both the established politically experienced dravidian parties, the DMK AND AIADMK. 

-THE SIMPLE IDEA: if re-elections happens, vijay wins the election very easily. The ADMK with just 47 votes will reduce even further. Many people vote for parties for protection, the protect their community, whether it is caste based community, religious or otherwise. The caste networks in the kongu belt(western tamil nadu) have similar reasons for voting admk.

-But the moment AIADMK weakens enough, many voters will ask subconsciously: can they protect us now? The people who voted for ADMK are the ones who voted against dmk(a party they dont trust and against tvk, a newcome they dont want or though would win either).

- With the fear of desire of gaining protection in any way against the dmk and possibly the tvk to secure their interest, they will have to choose another political party for that protection and who is that party: THE BJP. 

-BJP just has to use the same caste networks the admk depended on to have new increased influence in the region,

-So you might ask,what does bjp gain from tvk majority gov. It is quite simple, they can do more pressure than they could have ever done on stalin.

- TVK is new and inexperienced, they don’t to which extent politicians will go to reach their goals, the behind the scenes cunning play of pressuring mlas, the current karur cbi case, all tactics they can do on tvk.

- Not to mention, they can do financial pressure that they did on the last administration by not giving education funds etc, and who knows how vijay will react.

There is precedent for this, when the left collapsed in bengal, and TMC won, many left cadres switched to bjp to get protection even when it was weak in the state. They joined the bjp because it had the union government.

-Of-course political violence in Bengal is way higher than that of TN but the idea holds: feeling your party is weak now to protect you and hence you seek another party you BELIEVE can protect you. BJP fits it perfectly they have the union government and have made a perfect narrative that they are the superior one with hard power.

-Another thing if reelection happens bjp can use all its money on tn elections and such an opportunity has never happened, because the state elections always coincided with other state elections. Now bjp can focus fully in TN and try new strats, the room for trial and error is present

-Some might say the Governor is just following the law to avoid an unstable government or that the BJP is too weak to actually pull this off. But here is why that doesn't hold up because all their actions lead to these exact effects. Protection is an equally important thing for voting, delimitation bill was put before elections yet bjp vote share did not decrease and remained stable, this myth that tn voter never compromise on their identity and see it non negotiable needs to break down, there are other factors and they are more real and less abstract

Notice something strange? The election results are out, the state is in a constitutional deadlock, and yet… the BJP leadership is silent.

• Annamalai isn't doing his usual aggressive pressers.
• Tamilisai Soundararajan and Nainar Nagendran have practically vanished from the news cycle.

That is something to watch for

TLDR:- BJP WANTS RE-ELECTION TO WEAKEN ADMK IN THE KONGU NADU, INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE THERE SIGNIFICANTLY AND HAVE A NEW LARGER PRESENCE IN THE STATE. .

Voters of TN , the current situation is historically significant and is not the same as any era,. This is the first time the dravidian duopoly is breaking which alone means new conditions. I’m just an observer connecting the dots that I see.