I want to share why I think this is the best outcome for the state, and why the usual fear of minority government instability does not apply here.
DMK and AIADMK both fell short. Neither can form a government on their own. Even with their alliance partners, they are nowhere near 118. The only way they can stop Vijay is by holding hands with each other, which I think will not happen.
So when people say a minority government is fragile, I think they are missing the point. A minority government is fragile only when the opposition can unite to bring it down. That cannot happen here.
Why people voted for him
Tamil Nadu voters wanted change, but Tamil Nadu voters are also careful. They take in one big change at a time. Vijay understood this. His party's stated ideology is essentially Dravidian — social justice, secularism, two-language policy, anti-corruption — but he never used the word Dravidian. He gave people the same comfort without the baggage. Voters who were tired of DMK and never trusted AIADMK had a third option that did not feel scary or ideological.
The real challenge is money
His manifesto is expensive. ₹2,500 a month for women below 60. ₹4,000 a month for unemployed graduates and ₹2,500 for diploma holders. ₹3,000 monthly pension for elderly and disabled. 200 free units of power. Six free LPG cylinders a year. 8 grams of gold for poor brides. Crop loan waivers. Five lakh new government jobs. All of this eats up the budget fast.
To deliver, he needs cooperation from the Centre. Ideologically, TVK and BJP are opponents. But political reality is different from ideology. If NDA simply walks out during the floor test instead of voting against, it is effectively a green light. Vijay clears the test, BJP keeps its public distance from him to keep AIADMK happy, and everyone moves on. This is the most likely opening day scenario.
Why I am not worried about toppling
A minority government usually lives under constant threat. But who exactly is going to bring this one down? DMK and AIADMK cannot combine without their own alliances breaking. No single small party has the numbers to matter. The math for a no-confidence motion does not exist unless Vijay loses a large chunk of his own MLAs to defection, and that is hard under the anti-defection law.
The fresh election angle
Even if things spiral and we somehow end up at a fresh election in six or eight months, that is a disaster for DMK and AIADMK, not for Vijay. They have just been told by voters where they stand. Going back to the polls again would only confirm their decline. They cannot afford another election. They need the next five years to rebuild and figure out what they even stand for now. They will not push for elections.
Either a force in 2029, or the next NTK (outcome wise, don't mistake anything else)
This is the binary I see. There is no middle ground for TVK. Either they deliver in five years and become the dominant force in 2029, or they fade into the background like NTK — present but not consequential. DMK as opposition is going to be relentless. They have decades of experience, the media ecosystem, the cadre. Every mistake will get amplified. Vijay has to be sharp from day one.
But for better or worse, he is going to be our Chief Minister. After two parties dominating for nearly six decades, this is a moment of fresh air. I am willing to give it a chance.