There’s a common narrative that chasing is overpowered this season especially with scores like 260 getting chased, but the data tells a slightly different story.
Out of 39 matches: 15 were defended (~38%), 24 were chased (~62%) So yes, chasing is clearly ahead, but it depends a lot on the target and more importantly, which teams are involved.
Out of the 15 successful defenses:
230+: 4
~240 equivalent (150 in 11 overs): 1
200+: 7
190+: 2
Below 200: only 1 (RR vs LSG)
This basically means you need around 190–200+ to feel somewhat safe. Anything below that is very likely to be chased.
But even 200+ is not a guaranteed defending score.
Out of 20 instances of 200+ totals only 10 which half of them were chased. Out of those 10, 9 were chased by top 4 teams. So realistically, 200+ is a 50-50 game. Against weaker teams it’s usually safe, but against top teams it’s very chaseable. It comes down more to who is chasing rather than the number itself.
Now looking at failed chases:
10 out of 15 failures came from bottom teams (DC, MI, KKR, LSG)
Others: CSK (2), GT (2), RR (1)
Top 4 teams never lose while chasing (only one exception with RR), which clearly shows the gap in batting quality.
Now if you break down team patterns:
RCB: Very dependent on an anchor (Kohli). When he stays, chase looks controlled. When he gets out early, collapse risk increases. Both their losses came when he got out in powerplay.
RR: More dependent on powerplay momentum. If openers (Jaiswal/Suryavanshi type impact) give a fast start, they dominate. If not, pressure builds quickly.
PBKS: Most explosive top order overall, plus a strong middle order. They don’t rely on a fixed anchor, different players take that role depending on situation.
So different teams fail in different ways, which explains why chasing outcomes look inconsistent.
Bowling comparison among top teams:
RCB: 2/4 defenses, and restricted opposition below 200 three times. Decent overall.
PBKS: 1/2 defenses, and only one strong restriction well below 190–200. Weakest bowling among the top sides.
RR: 3/5 defenses, and 3 times restricted teams below 190. Fairly balanced.
SRH: 3/7 defenses, but restricted opposition below 200 five times. Also lost toss in 7 out of 8 matches. Very underrated bowling considering that.
Middle order: RCB > PBKS > RR ≈ SRH
Top order: PBKS > SRH ≈ RR > RCB
Bowling: SRH ≈ RCB > RR > PBKS
Final conclusion:
Chasing looks easy mainly because top teams are very good at it. It’s more about team quality than pitch or format. 200+ is still the practical defending range, but not safe. In matches between top teams: Chasing side usually has the edge and Toss becomes very important. Overall, the only consistent way chasing fails is a batting collapse, which depends heavily on middle order strength.
One more factor skewing the data: RCB, RR and PBKS are in the same group, so they play each other only once and get more games against weaker teams. SRH, on the other hand, has had 6 out of 14 matches against top teams and also poor toss luck. Even then, they are just one win behind RCB and RR, which makes them a proper underdog this season. Could we see a 2016-type run again ?