When and how do you think the US/Israel/Iran war will end?
I think a prolonged stalemate seems most likely.
I think Trump would like to end the war and taco but the Iranian regime won’t come remotely close to his demands. I think there are certain leaders like ghalibaf or pezeshkian who may be willing to negotiate down some but the power structure seems so fragmented and disjointed with many hardliners who won’t acquiesce basically at all be it religious fanatics or regime/military leaders. So I see next to zero chance the regime will agree to even a significantly reduced version of Trump demands.
And bombing them more won’t make them care one iota. The regime cares zero about their civilians and also most of them don’t seem to care even for self preservation. It’s pretty much a nightmare logistical situation for Trump due to them being able to effectively keep the strait of Hormuz to very minimal traffic with scattered attacks and the threat of it at any time.
Trump could try walking away but then he doesn’t get what he’s asserted he wants (his nuclear demands) and the strait effectively stays shut indefinitely which seemingly will lead to a global recession based on what I’ve read from economists. Trump could put boots on the ground but he clearly doesn’t want to and knows that would decimate his already scant approval politically ahead of midterms.
That’s all without even factoring in Lebanon with Hezbollah and Israel. Iran wants to keep its puppet proxy which Israel and Lebanese govt want gone. So there’s essentially no reachable ground with either Israel Iran re Hezbollah or US Iran re nuclear and other items.
So I think it’s an indefinite stalemate. US could bomb Iran more but reportedly they’ll still have a chunk of missiles and drones left anyway. US and foreign governments could try and secure the strait for normal transit but I think that’s months away from viability if at all. Iran could reach a humanitarian crisis which could potentially result in internal revolt but we’ve already seen that the regime way overpowers their citizenry.
Curious what others think. I don’t see any near term resolution and think this prolongs with minimal strait traffic for foreseeable future.