u/Hypergeomancer

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player. I've learned that knowing the maths behind the game can give you a genuine edge — a mindset that's carried me to Paupergeddon Top8, among other results.

One of the most iconic questions in Magic has always been: What are the actual odds that Delver flips?

The full paper is now released.

It develops an exact probabilistic framework for Delver of Secrets using hypergeometric distributions, conditional probability, and large-scale Monte Carlo validation, covering:

• Natural Flip probabilities

• Brainstorm Flip odds

• Complete- and Incomplete- information models (from player’s and opponent’s perspectives)

• Turn-2 flip probability in realistic game scenarios.

This is also the biggest and most mathematically complex Magic-related paper I released so far, both in depth and formal rigor.

📄 Full paper: https://zenodo.org/records/20137975

▶️ Video Series

Part 1: https://youtu.be/9bD-Ghp6GsU

Part 2: https://youtu.be/FmcfVn09uYk

Part 3: https://youtu.be/Q6_DPwFnSPA

🖥️ Try it yourself! Use this interactive calculator to test your own deck: https://hypergeomancer.github.io/delver-of-secrets-flip/

If you enjoy gaining edges from mathematics instead of vibes, this one’s for you.

Math bless your draws.

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8.

Today’s match is against Dimir Terror.

https://youtu.be/31AgI0ULVac

Math bless your draws.

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8.

Today’s match is against Boros Bully, a classic archetype that still holds its ground in the current metagame.

https://youtu.be/FLBQa\_TUKIc

Math bless your draws.

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8 in the past.

The first video covers some early matches against Mono R Madness and initial impressions in the current meta. Still refining lines and sideboard plans, so feedback and discussion are very welcome.

https://youtu.be/SP2pxjI3jh8

Math bless your draws.