So I'm a total beginner and poor college student without much disposable income. I don't really feel like buying a lot of locks as they get pretty pricey (I live in Germany) and then I don't know if they're far above my level like the Abus 85/50 which is my first practice lock.
Do you guys and gals sometimes walk around town, picking random old locks (bicycle and padlocks) that are clearly not used anymore?
Using bend probability on an asteroid got me the planet killer weapon event. I thought I might be safe on an asteroid as it says "destroys the planet", but... yeah. My crow army got obliterated
Idk if or how impressive this is for a beginner, but I just SPPd my first 6 pin cylinder today and I'm pretty happy.
Given they're all regular pins and I've more or less memorized the binding order by now, this probably isn't that much of an achievement, but hey, we all gotta start somewhere.
Also do any of you have advice on getting stuck in a keyway and not quite knowing if you're stuck or if the key is just binding really hard? I can't tell the difference for now and a "you'll learn it as you go" advice would be pretty unsatisfying
So I'm trying to get into lockpicking again and set my goal on a blue belt. Reading through the other belt descriptions (they're quite lovely), I came across this on the red one: "Your lock collection is worth more than your first car, and you constantly troll eBay for deals on insane European locks."
Are European locks that much harder (on average) than American locks or does this really just refer to "insane" locks?
To reiterate: The Monty Hall Problem is you being on a game show with 3 doors, one of which has a prize behind it, two have a dud. You guess one door, then the host opens a door with a dud behind it. Now you can switch to the other remaining door or stay with your original decision.
Statistically it wiser to switch because at first you had a 1/3 chance to guess correctly, but on your second guess you have a 2/3 chance if you switch.
Now the problem is almost always explained by going for the extreme: Assume there are 1000 doors instead of 3 and there is still only one price. Now your chance of picking the price on the first go is extremely low. The host opens all but 1 door, giving you the choice between your original low chance and one other door.
Now here comes my problem: Why do we assume the host opens all remaining doors (except one) instead of just opening 1 door, then give you a chance to switch? This assumption feels totally arbitrary to me. To me, it seems equally likely the host might open just one more door out of the 1000 as he would open 998 remaining doors.
Edit: Thanks guys and gals, I get it now. It was to help with intuitively understanding the problem, which I clearly needed.