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[The Strait - still closed, Vance heads to Pakistan]

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

• US forces stopped an Iranian-flagged vessel overnight Monday by blowing a hole in its engine room.
• Iran has signalled it is not committed to the next phase of peace talks.

The one development that may matter: Conroy confirmed Tuesday morning that JD Vance is heading to Pakistan for talks.

• Iran does not appear to be directly involved at this stage.
• Pakistan was the facilitating country for the Islamabad talks that failed on April 12.
• Whether this represents a genuine back-channel resumption or a US-Pakistan bilateral conversation is not yet clear.

Conroy: "We're obviously urging the ceasefire to be maintained, for negotiations to resume between the parties and for there to be de-escalation."

The London Strait of Hormuz defence conference is expected this week. Australia will participate.

Albanese confirmed Monday that National Cabinet will convene in coming days - not to change fuel security levels but to brief state and territory leaders on the current situation.

[The fuel - where things stand]

Saturday's Bowen figures remain the most recent official update:

• 46 days petrol.
• 31 days diesel.
• 30 days jet fuel.
• 61 ships en route.
• All of May contracted.

Those figures were built before the Strait closed again Sunday. The ships already en route are still coming. June remains uncertain.

[WA FuelWatch - Tuesday 21 April]

• PULP outages (6) - a genuine improvement in the metro and south west PULP picture.
• ULP outages (6)
• Diesel outages (5)

The Kalgoorlie restock that wasn't. Yesterday's data showed Fuel & Fly Kalgoorlie with a scheduled restock of 6am Tuesday - the first specific restock date recorded in the 21-day tracking period.

• It was noted as a potential positive signal.
• As of today's data, both ULP and diesel at that site remain listed as unavailable. The scheduled restock did not hold.
• The goldfields corridor remains under sustained pressure.

The Shell Reddy Express diesel cluster has shifted again - Bentley today, replacing yesterday's Malaga.

• The network continues to rotate outages across different Perth metro sites day by day.
• This is now the fifth consecutive day of Shell Reddy Express diesel failures across rotating metropolitan and regional sites.

Elleker is new on diesel - a small community on Lower Denmark Road in the Great Southern region near Albany. Agricultural area, 720km south of Perth.

Bunbury OTR is new on ULP - Bunbury is the south west's largest regional centre and a major freight hub. First Bunbury ULP outage in the series.

Esperance Shell new on ULP - the south coast continues to show intermittent stress.

[Counter-drone capability - $7 billion announced]

Conroy announced in Melbourne today that the government will more than double investment in counter-drone capability to up to $7 billion over the decade under the IIP.

• Total drone, counter-drone and autonomous systems envelope is $22 billion.

Two initial contracts announced through ASCA's Mission Syracuse:

• AIM Defence - $21.3 million for Fractl, a high-powered laser system capable of tracking objects as small as a 10-cent piece at over 100km/h and burning through steel. Designed to counter individual drones and swarms.
• SYPAQ Systems - $10.4 million for Corvo Strike, an interceptor drone designed to track, target and destroy larger drones.

Both systems will integrate into the ADF's existing counter-UAS control system under LAND 156.

Conroy at the SYPAQ facility: "At the moment we're seeing nations having to use $3 million missiles to take out a $100,000 drone. These systems cost tens of thousands of dollars. You want it to be more expensive for your opponent than you."

Conroy also confirmed explicitly that SYPAQ drones funded by the Australian Department of Defence are currently deployed in Ukraine; and that operational experience directly informed the Corvo Strike counter-drone design.

This is the clearest on-record ministerial confirmation of Australian-manufactured autonomous systems in active conflict deployment.

[What else]

A parliamentary inquiry began today into taxing oil and gas resources.

• Labor backbencher Ed Husic has called for a 25% tax on gas exports in the May budget.
• Conroy declined to comment - deferred to the Treasurer.
• The inquiry is a pressure point heading into the May 12 budget.

The NatRoad March fuel bill deadline was yesterday, April 21. The Economic Resilience Program zero-interest loans opened Monday. Whether the timing was fast enough for operators in acute distress will become clearer in the coming days.

[Watch points]

This week: London Strait of Hormuz defence conference - Australia to participate

Coming days: National Cabinet fuel security meeting - Albanese confirmed

Coming days: Vance in Pakistan - potential back-channel talks

May 12: Federal Budget

Sources*: Conroy, ABC News Breakfast transcript, 21 April 2026 · Conroy, SYPAQ Melbourne press conference transcript, 21 April 2026 · Conroy and AIM/SYPAQ media release, 21 April 2026 · Albanese, ABC 7.30 transcript, 20 April 2026 · WA FuelWatch data, 21 April 2026 · Bowen weekly press conference, 18 April 2026*

[The Strait - another escalation]

Iran opened the Strait on Saturday night. By Sunday it had closed again.

• Overnight Monday, Trump posted on Truth Social that US forces stopped an Iranian-flagged vessel "by blowing a hole in its engine room."
• Iran responded by saying the US is "dressing up aggressive acts as diplomacy" and signalled it is not committed to the next phase of peace talks.

The ceasefire is holding in name only. The Strait remains effectively closed. The fragile opening that prompted last Saturday's optimistic fuel reserve figures has not been sustained.

• Conroy Sunday: "very fragile situation."
• Marles Sunday: "disappointing development."
• Wong Monday: "This is an inherently risky situation. Of course it is."
• Wong on the next 12 weeks: "we first need to have the ceasefire hold and the Strait open. But we also know there is going to be disruption for some time in global energy markets."

The 51-nation Freedom of Navigation Summit held Friday night produced a consensus position (de-escalation, open Strait, no privatisation, no tolls) but no operational commitments.

A follow-up conference with a defence focus will be held in London this week. Australia will participate.

[Australia and the US gap - clearest statement yet]

Wong confirmed to Sky News this morning that both the UAE and the United States made requests for assistance with the defence of Gulf countries.

• Australia chose to respond to the UAE request.
• It did not respond to the US request.

Wong: "There was a request for assistance of the defence of the Gulf countries, including from the UAE and the United States. The request we determined to respond to was the United Arab Emirates."

That is the most explicit account yet of what happened. Australia received a US request. It declined it. It accepted the UAE version of the same request.

Trump has said publicly, multiple times, that Australia was asked and was not there. The government's position ("no formal request for naval assets in relation to the Strait") remains technically accurate while this broader picture becomes clearer.

Wong asked directly whether she has confidence in Trump: "the United States under President Trump will be a very different America... one of his characteristics and tactics is unpredictability. We've certainly seen unpredictability."

Wong asked whether the government has modelled petrol rationing including site closures on certain days: declined to confirm or deny. Not a denial.

[The Economic Resilience Program opens - 18 days late]

The $1 billion Economic Resilience Program opened today, April 20; 18 days after it was announced on April 2. NatRoad's tone has shifted from "too little too late, businesses closing now" to crediting the government for delivering "a significant win."

• Zero-interest loans up to $5 million for businesses with turnover under $100 million, available through existing bank relationships; the big four plus Bank of Queensland and Bendigo Bank.
• Freight and logistics are explicitly named as eligible sectors.
• Money expected to flow within days.

The fine print: normal bank credit assessment applies.

• NatRoad flagged explicitly that operators already under financial stress may face barriers to qualifying.
• The operators most likely to need the loans are the ones least likely to pass a credit check.
• NatRoad said it will raise this immediately if small operators are being excluded in practice.

The March fuel bills are due tomorrow, April 21. The program opening the day before is cutting it extremely close for operators whose fuel cards were being declined last week.

• A separate $5 billion component is available for manufacturing firms investing in energy resilience at concessional rates; brought forward from mid-year to today.

Industry Minister Tim Ayres confirmed Viva Energy's refineries almost certainly don't qualify for the bank stream; too large on both turnover and loan size. They would deal with the NRF directly.

[Viva update - production to exceed 90% within weeks]

Viva Energy published its formal ASX market update today. Current production:

• 80% diesel and jet fuel,
• 60% petrol.

Over the next few weeks, subject to plant inspection, the company expects to lift all three fuel types to over 90% of capacity.

Viva confirmed sufficient fuel stocks to cover reduced production and ruled out price increases or supply disruptions for customers.

CEO Scott Wyatt: "We will progressively restore production once we are confident that it is safe to do so, and do not expect any disruptions to fuel availability or price increases for Viva Energy's customers as a result of this incident."

The 90% target is more specific and more optimistic than anything said publicly at Friday's Geelong presser.

[The fuel - where things stand]

Saturday's Bowen figures remain the most recent official update; built before the Strait closed again:

• 46 days petrol (up 8 from previous Saturday).
• 31 days diesel.
• 30 days jet fuel.
• 61 ships en route.
• All of May contracted.

The ships already en route are still coming.

What the Strait closing again changes is June and beyond; which was already uncertain.

The sulphur standard extension to September now looks less like caution and more like foresight.

[Tasmania - April 20 date]

The Tasmanian Government updated its official fuel supply page today (April 20) with identical language to April 17.

Supply is secure, regular deliveries continuing.

The warning date has passed without a declared shortage.

Whether the agricultural diesel pressure TasFarmers described has been quietly absorbed into the national supply chain, or is building without public acknowledgement, is not visible from official sources.

Sources:

Wong, Sky News Politics Now transcript, 20 April 2026 · Ayres, ABC RN Breakfast, ABC Radio Sydney, and Today Show transcripts, 20 April 2026 · Ayres NRF press conference transcript, 20 April 2026 · NatRoad media release, zero-interest loan program opens, 20 April 2026 · Viva Energy ASX market update, Geelong Refinery Incident Update, 20 April 2026 · Tasmanian Government fuel supply alert, alert.tas.gov.au/fuel-supply, 20 April 2026 · Marles, ABC Insiders transcript, 19 April 2026 · Conroy, Sky News Australia transcript, 19 April 2026 · Bowen weekly press conference, 18 April 2026 · WA FuelWatch data, 20 April 2026

[The Strait closes again]

The fragile opening lasted less than 24 hours.

• Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again, citing a broken promise by the United States.
• Iranian gunboats fired on Indian-flagged commercial ships in the Strait overnight.
• Tehran described the US blockade of Iranian ports as "piracy."

Conroy this morning: "We condemn the attacks on civilian cargo ships." Marles on Insiders: "Obviously that is a disappointing development overnight."

• Both called for the ceasefire to continue and for negotiations to resume.
• Neither offered an assessment of how likely that is.

Albanese confirmed last night's 49-nation summit (hosted by Macron and Starmer) reached consensus on de-escalation, open Strait, no privatisation and no tolls on passage.

• A second meeting with a defence focus will be held in London this week. Australia will participate.

The supply picture Bowen described yesterday morning (46 days petrol, 61 ships en route, all of May contracted) was built before the Strait closed again.

The long tail Bowen described as already built into the sulphur standard extension to September is now the baseline again.

[The Wedgetail question]

Marles confirmed on Insiders that the E-7A Wedgetail feeds its data into the Combined Air Operations Centre in Qatar.

• The United States participates in the CAOC.

Marles: it would be "impossible" to provide useful air defence for the UAE without working through the CAOC, which the US is part of.

He argued the Wedgetail's capability (optimised for airborne threats) is "not really something that would be useful in terms of the US blockade."

• Speers pushed back. Marles did not give a yes or no.

Marles also confirmed Australia has embedded ADF personnel in US Central Command; the US theatre command for the Middle East.

• "We don't go to every meeting, but we have some visibility."

["Obviously we will help"]

Marles said this twice unprompted on Insiders. Conroy confirmed "we are prepared to consider requests."

• Neither used the language of refusal that characterised the government's position earlier in the week.

When Speers pressed Marles on informal requests ("is there something less specific than a specific request?")

• Marles said: "I'm not about to go into a whole lot of conversations that have happened." He then said: "obviously, we will help."

Wong yesterday: "We have not said no to any request."

The position is no longer a refusal. It is a deferral.

[The fuel - where things stand]

Yesterday's Bowen figures remain the most recent official update:

• 46 days petrol (up 8 from previous Saturday, 10 more than when the crisis began).
• 31 days diesel.
• 30 days jet fuel.
• 61 ships en route.
• All of May contracted.

The Strait closing again overnight does not immediately change these figures; the ships already en route are still coming.

• What it changes is the June picture, which was already uncertain, and everything beyond.

Bowen extended the higher sulphur petrol standard to end of September on Saturday. That decision now looks more significant than it did 24 hours ago.

Viva Energy is expected to update the Australian people on Monday on its plan to increase production at the Geelong refinery beyond the current 80% diesel/jet fuel and 60% petrol levels.

[WA FuelWatch - Sunday 19 April]

• PULP outages (7)
• ULP outages (3)
• Diesel outages (6)

The FuelWatch price data shows regional diesel now sitting at 331–341 cents per litre:

• Meekatharra 331.9c,
• Norseman 331.5c,
• Ravensthorpe 335.9c.

Perth metro pre-crisis diesel was approximately 220-230c. Regional diesel is approximately 50% above pre-crisis metro pricing.

Sources: Conroy, Sky News Australia transcript, 19 April 2026 · Marles, ABC Insiders transcript, 19 April 2026 · Bowen weekly press conference, 18 April 2026 · Albanese press conference, Sydney, 18 April 2026 · WA FuelWatch data, 19 April 2026

[The Strait opens]

During last night's 49-nation Freedom of Navigation Summit, news broke that Iran has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz to all passage.

• Albanese confirmed this at his Saturday morning press conference.
• He described the development as positive but fragile. He did not use the word "resolved."
• The summit was hosted by President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer, with Chancellor Merz and Prime Minister Meloni attending in person.
• 49 countries participated virtually, including Australia.
• Consistent position across all: de-escalation, open Strait, no privatisation, no tolls on passage.
• An IMO report on seafarer welfare (many have been stranded on ships in the Gulf for weeks) was also tabled.
• A follow-up conference in London this week will discuss what assets and contributions each country will provide.
• Australia confirmed it will participate. Albanese: "Australia remains, of course, prepared to provide assistance."

On timeline: even if the Strait opening holds, the supply impact will take months to flow through.

• Ships already in transit need to clear.
• Mines need to be swept.
• Infrastructure damaged in the opening strikes (including South Pars and Qatar's Ras Laffan) needs repair.
• Insurance barriers need to be resolved.
• Albanese: "You're talking 90 days before the expectation, at least."

This is not job done. It is the beginning of a long tail.

[The fuel - weekly figures]

Bowen's Saturday update is the best fuel reserve picture since the crisis began.

• 46 days petrol on hand; up 8 from last Saturday, and 10 days more than when the crisis began at end of February. Just under 2 billion litres.
• 31 days diesel; unchanged from last week. 2.8 billion litres.
• 30 days jet fuel; up 2 from last week.
• 61 cargo ships en route; up from 57 last week.

All of May now contracted. Starting into June.

4.1 billion litres locked in over the next four weeks:

• 2,055 million litres diesel,
• 753 million litres petrol,
• 390 million litres jet fuel,
• 903 million litres crude oil.

Bowen: "We've actually seen more fuel in Australia now as a result of government and industry working so closely together, than when this international conflict began."

National outages: 120 stations without diesel nationally; 1.7% of approximately 8,000 stations.

Continued improvement across the board.

[WA Government weekly update]

• 10 stockouts out of 771 stations statewide as of Friday; significant improvement from earlier in the week.
• WA confirmed its fuel supply is unaffected by the Geelong fire. WA does not receive fuel from Viva Geelong.
• State strategic reserve confirmed at 4 million litres with capacity to expand to 12 million litres. 100% state-owned.
• Emergency powers under the Fuel, Energy and Power Resources Act 1972 ratified by WA Parliament this week.
• Commissioner for Consumer Protection writing to all fuel suppliers to compel information on pricing; ensuring the fuel excise cuts have been passed on to consumers in full.

[The refinery - Monday update incoming]

Geelong remains at 80% diesel and jet fuel, 60% petrol.

• Viva is working through the weekend.
• Bowen confirmed Viva will update the Australian people on Monday with their plan to increase production further.

Bowen: "I'm confident that diesel and jet fuel will return to more normal levels quite quickly. Petrol will take a little bit longer."

[The spot market failure - explained]

Bowen in the SMH/Age podcast this week gave the clearest account yet of why regional outages occurred and why they were so persistent.

The fuel market operates on two systems: contracted and spot.

• The contracted market serves cities and large industrial users; miners, major operators.
• The spot market serves regional areas.

When the crisis hit, every contracted buyer immediately purchased their maximum allocation.

• Refineries were legally obliged to honour those contracts.
• The contracted market consumed all available supply.
• The spot market (which regional WA depends on) was left with nothing.

Bowen: "It wasn't the intention. It was just that the city works on contracts... the spot market really failed to work because the contracted market was taking up all the fuel."

It was not a logistics failure. It was a market structure failure.

[Sulphur standard extended]

Bowen extended the higher sulphur petrol standard (50 parts per million) from end of May to end of September.

• A blending-down period follows to December 31.
• The extension signals the government expects ongoing supply pressure in the international market even with the Strait opening.

The long tail is already being built into regulatory settings.

[Singapore Protocol concluded]

The binding Protocol on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies to the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement has been substantially concluded. Wong and Farrell finalised it in Singapore Friday.

• It covers petroleum oils including diesel, and LNG.
• Both countries commit to avoiding export prohibitions or restrictions on essential supplies between them.
• The Australia-Singapore Economic Resilience Dialogue is formalised as the ongoing coordination mechanism.
• Enters into force after domestic processes in both countries.

Singapore's Foreign Minister Balakrishnan at the signing: "Relationships are tested in times of crisis. More recently, during Covid-19, we stood together, and now in this current crisis of supply chains, again, we found complementarity and mutual interdependence."

[Wong on the Trump gap]

The discrepancy between Trump's public statements ("they were not there when we asked them to be there") and Australia's position has not been resolved, but Wong's language has shifted.

• Pressed hard by Karvelas on the "formal/informal" distinction, Wong said: "We have not said no to any request."
• She also confirmed she had a call with Secretary Rubio earlier in the conflict and that Australia continues to engage with the US administration to ensure they are "very clear about what we have been asked to do and what we are doing."

That framing ("what we have been asked to do") is meaningfully different from "no request has been received."

The government is no longer simply denying requests exist. It is describing a process of responding to requests and accounting for what it has provided.

[National Incident Centre activated]

Albanese confirmed the National Incident Centre has been activated for the first time since COVID; in relation to medical supply shortages caused by the crisis.

He did not elaborate on specifics but described it as part of whole-of-government preparation for downstream impacts.

[What else]

Australia locked in contracts for the first three Mogami-class general purpose frigates; built by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, first delivery to the RAN in 2029.

• Subsequent ships to be built at Henderson Defence Precinct.
• Marles and Japanese Defence Minister Koizumi signed the "Mogami Memorandum." Up to $20 billion committed over the decade to the GPF program.

Tasmania's April 20 diesel risk date is two days away. No new figures today pending further state-level updates.

The NatRoad March fuel bill deadline is three days away.

Sources: Prime Minister Albanese and Minister Bowen press conference, Sydney, 18 April 2026 · Minister Bowen weekly fuel update, 18 April 2026 · Foreign Minister Wong, ABC Afternoon Briefing and 10 News+ transcripts, 17 April 2026 · Singapore-Australia Protocol on Economic Resilience and Essential Supplies media release, 17 April 2026 · Singapore doorstop transcript, 17 April 2026 · WA Government Weekly Fuel Update, 17 April 2026 · Marles and Conroy joint media release, Australia locks in first three general purpose frigates, 18 April 2026 · Bowen, SMH/Age Inside Politics podcast transcript, 17 April 2026 ·

[The refinery - updated picture]

Albanese and Marles visited the Viva Energy refinery in Corio this morning alongside Bowen and Viva CEO Scott Wyatt.

Updated production figures confirmed at the site:

• 80% diesel production continuing,
• 80% jet fuel continuing,
• 60% petrol production continuing.

The two damaged units do not affect diesel or jet fuel lines.

• Wyatt confirmed the facility can run close to full production without those units indefinitely while repairs are assessed.
• Wyatt ruled out passing any additional costs on to consumers.
• No maintenance delays were linked to the fire.
• Full damage assessment still pending; the area is not yet fully accessible.

Timeline to full production: unknown until assessment is complete, but Wyatt said he was "confident we'll find good solutions" for operating around the damaged units.

Albanese confirmed no move to Stage 3 or 4 of the National Fuel Security Plan as a result of the fire.

• Marles across multiple morning interviews was consistent: the refinery fire does not shift the stage.
• What drives stage decisions is the Strait of Hormuz, not Geelong.

Viva's commitment: "There will be no impact to what we supply into the Victorian market as a result of this incident. I'm very confident in that."

[BP joins the EFA scheme]

BP is now the fifth company in the Export Finance Australia arrangements, joining Viva, Ampol, IOR, and Park Fuels.

• Bowen flagged BP as particularly significant for Western Australia; they are a major WA fuel supplier and are now able to go to market for additional cargoes.

[Indonesia fertiliser deal]

250,000 tonnes of additional agricultural-grade urea secured from Indonesia; a commercial deal between Incitec Pivot and PT Pupuk Indonesia, supported by both governments.

• Covers approximately 20% of remaining fertiliser needs for the current season, running May to December at prevailing market prices.
• The deal builds on the Indonesia-Australia Treaty on Common Security and is described as a product of the bilateral relationship.
• Wong confirmed Australia is working with regional partners on shared energy and food security.

This is separate from and additional to the Brunei urea commitments and the streamlined biosecurity processes for fertiliser imports announced yesterday.

[Trump says Australia was asked and declined]

Trump told Sky News overnight: "I'm not happy with Australia because they were not there when we asked them to be there"; specifically naming the Strait of Hormuz.

• This is the first time Trump has stated on record that Australia was asked and declined.
• Previous Australian government messaging has been consistent: no formal request received.
• Albanese at the Geelong presser deflected entirely. Asked repeatedly whether Australia had received any informal request, he referred to previous answers and said "Australia's position is the same today as it was yesterday." He declined to call Trump to clarify.
• Marles on RN acknowledged there has been no "specific request" on the Strait but notably used softer language than earlier in the week ("we will cooperate and contribute in whatever way we can") a shift from Conroy's flat "we are not considering joining the blockade" from Monday.

The gap between Trump's public statement and Australia's public position has not been resolved.

[Lebanon-Israel ceasefire]

Albanese at the Geelong presser confirmed the US has brokered a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel.

• He called on all parties to agree and abide by it.
• No further details confirmed at time of presser.

[Budget confirmed May 12]

Albanese confirmed the federal budget will be delivered on May 12.

He described "resilience" as one of its central themes; making more things in Australia and giving Australians a stake in the economy.

[Tasmania watch]

April 20 TasFarmers diesel risk date is three days away. Premier Rockliff confirmed yesterday Tasmania is assessing decommissioned storage at Selfs Point and looking at sourcing additional diesel internationally. No new figures today pending Bowen's Saturday update.

Sources: Prime Minister Albanese and Deputy Prime Minister Marles press conference, Viva Refinery Geelong, 17 April 2026 · Marles, ABC News Breakfast, Today Show, Sunrise, Sky News, ABC RN, 3AW transcripts, 17 April 2026 · PM media release, Securing more fertiliser for Australian farmers, 17 April 2026 · WA FuelWatch data, 17 April 2026

[The refinery fire]

At approximately 11pm Wednesday night, a fire broke out at Viva Energy's Geelong refinery; one of Australia's two remaining operational refineries.

• It burned for 13 hours before being extinguished at 12:04pm Thursday.
• Cause confirmed: a gas leak from a faulty mechanical component in the mogas alkylation unit; the section of the refinery that combines LPG to create gasoline-type molecules. Equipment failure. Not suspicious. No link to delayed maintenance on that specific unit.
• The affected unit handles gasoline and aviation gasoline; not diesel or jet fuel.
• Investigations by Fire Rescue Victoria, WorkSafe, and Victoria Police are underway; WorkSafe notes comprehensive investigations can take more than 12 months.
• No injuries.
• The damage is narrower than initially feared.
• Diesel and jet fuel production continued throughout at reduced levels as a precaution; Viva confirmed both are still being produced at "pretty decent rates." Petrol production is also impacted.
• Viva is confident shortfalls in both can be replaced with imports.

Ampol's Lytton refinery in Brisbane confirmed it is operating at 100% capacity.

Bowen at his afternoon press conference: "This is not a positive development, this is not good timing, and this is a setback."

• He confirmed no move to Stage 3 or 4 of the National Fuel Security Plan is necessitated by the fire.
• On sabotage: "no evidence of that... it appears to have been very accidental."

Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the timing as the fire arriving "just as the crunch point of the global fuel shortage is about to hit us."

A former refinery manager put the recovery timeline at "weeks to months, depending on what's affected and what equipment you've got."

Fire Rescue Victoria will remain on site.

The Geelong refinery is the country's sole producer of aviation fuel and supplies approximately 50% of Victoria's fuel and 10% of national supply.

[Strategic Reserve powers deliver first cargo]

The first shipments secured under the new Strategic Reserve Powers were confirmed Thursday:

• approximately 100 million litres of additional diesel,
• sourced from Brunei and South Korea;
• two ships, 50 million litres each.
• Both will arrive in May.

Export Finance Australia partnered with Viva Energy for the purchase, with commercial terms also in place with Ampol, Park Fuels, and IOR.

Cargoes are:

• additional to existing contracted supply,
• required to remain in Australia,
• directed to regions and industries with greatest need.

Albanese signed the Brunei joint statement Wednesday. The first cargo confirmation came within 24 hours.

[The fuel]

Bowen's afternoon update:

• 136 stations nationally without diesel, down from 156 on Wednesday and 205 on Monday.
• That is a continued improvement across three days.

Reserves as of Wednesday:

• 38 days petrol,
• 31 days diesel,
• 30 days jet fuel.
• 57 tankers en route.
• 4.1 billion litres locked in over the next four weeks.

The improvement in the national diesel picture is real.

The petrol picture will deteriorate as the Geelong fire impact flows through to production; the timeline for that is weeks, not days.

[Tasmania watch]

The April 20 TasFarmers diesel risk date is now four days away.

• Tasmania receives a material share of its fuel from Geelong; the state government confirmed a rapid impact assessment of the fire's implications is underway.
• Premier Rockliff announced Tasmania is looking at sourcing additional diesel internationally and assessing decommissioned storage facilities at Selfs Point for a potential state strategic reserve.

[The National Defence Strategy]

The 2026 National Defence Strategy (NDS) and Integrated Investment Program were released today at the National Press Club.

Total commitment:

• $425 billion in capability investment over the decade to 2035–36.
• Additional investment of $53 billion over the decade through the 2026 NDS.
• Bringing combined additional investment from both strategies to $117 billion over the decade.

Defence spending projected to reach 3% of GDP by 2033 under NATO methodology; currently 2.8%.

• Both the Opposition and the Greens challenged this figure on the grounds that the NATO methodology includes pension and civil defence costs excluded from Australia's traditional reporting.
• That is a legitimate methodological dispute.

The NDS formally embeds fuel resilience as a defence capability priority for the first time.

• A National Fuel Council has been jointly established between DCCEEW and Defence.
• The Defence Fuel Resilience Program has doubled Defence's fuel holdings since 2022.
• A further $4.8 billion will be invested over the decade in storage capacity, distribution by rail and sea, and the ability to convert civilian aviation fuel to military specification in a crisis.
• Northern base fuel storage will be significantly expanded.

The document was released on the same morning one of Australia's two operational refineries caught fire.

Marles at the NPC: "Australia faces its most complex and threatening strategic circumstances since the end of World War II... our exposure to conflict and coercion will reach levels not seen since the Second World War."

• On AI as investment driver: "The Ukrainian example (matching rapidly evolving, cheaper military equipment against larger, more expensive platforms) is driving new investment in emerging and disruptive technologies; including AI."
• On immediate priorities: "Over the next two years and beyond we will be making significant new upgrades in communications, command and control systems."

[Fertiliser]

Agriculture Minister Julie Collins announced streamlined biosecurity processes for imported fertiliser today:

• offshore certification now accepted,
• reduced port clearance times,
• simplified importer registration.

Developed in consultation with Fertilizer Australia.

Does not compromise biosecurity standards.

[What else]

Albanese confirmed he met with a global oil company executive in Malaysia today alongside talks with PM Anwar Ibrahim; further details expected.

The government announced support for Australia's largest heavy electric truck depot; New Energy Transport's Wilton Project south-west of Sydney, the first in a planned zero-emission freight corridor network.

• Operational by end of 2026, interstate corridors by 2031.
• The structural long-term answer to diesel dependency in freight, announced while the trucking industry is in acute crisis.

The ceasefire has approximately five days remaining.

Sources: ABC News live blog, Geelong refinery fire, 16 April 2026 · Guardian Australia live blog, 16 April 2026 · Nine News, Geelong refinery fire coverage, 16 April 2026 · Minister Bowen afternoon press conference, 16 April 2026 · Minister Bowen, Sunrise, Today Show, Sky News, ABC News Breakfast transcripts, 16 April 2026 · PM media release, First fuel shipments secured under Strategic Reserve Powers, 16 April 2026 · Marles speech to the National Press Club, 16 April 2026 · 2026 National Defence Strategy, 16 April 2026 · 2026 Integrated Investment Program factsheets, 16 April 2026 · Minister Collins media release, Getting fertiliser to farmers faster, 16 April 2026 · WA FuelWatch data, 16 April 2026 · NatRoad media releases, April 2026 series