u/HaydenRSnow

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Methodology

This projection was generated using multiple data sources. Multiple pre-election opinion polls, conducted between February and May and involving approximately 30,000 Scottish voters were analysed and synthesised. This information was augmented by post-election online exit poll data. This is the first time online post-election polling has been conducted in this manner for the production of a projection in a Scottish Parliament Election. It is for this reason that the release of this projection could not take place before 10pm, when polls closed.

This project, known as EP26m has been in the works for several months, and the desire to try this has been mine for several years. As an independent election analyst, I make no great claims to accuracy. However, the projection we made for the 2021 Election was broadly accurate, and this projection has been made with greater care. However, given the unprecedented situation with Reform, there is a notable margin of error.

Hello, I am a student and am currently working on a project called EP26, a voting analysis model for the 2026 Scottish Parliament Election. I would be very grateful if you could fill out my form on how you have voted/how you intend to vote in this election. The results will be used to improve our model and provide better analysis of voting patterns. Many thanks for your support (the form won't take longer than 30 seconds to complete, it's only three questions).

Form if you have already voted

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeJzpoEGjro57oLapoclTxMltH8XfRwxtP-zueccjD3MdBISQ/viewform?usp=publish-editor

Form if you have not yet voted

https://forms.gle/Dqzkn4MjHGGm7Dnj8