Freightos Weekly Update - May 12, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 1%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) increased 10%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 5%.

Analysis:

The US paused its Operation Freedom, designed to support vessel transits out of the Strait of Hormuz – and which sparked renewed US-Iran exchanges of fire as well as Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states last week – less than two days after its launch.

Even amid sporadic military engagement, US-Iran negotiations continue, though the sides remain far apart, with President Trump stating that he may restart the operation if negotiations stall. In the meantime, Iran announced the creation of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority through which vessels are required to request permission – and possibly pay – to pass through the strait.

Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc estimates that elevated fuel prices due to the closure has the carrier facing $500M per month in additional costs. He also reports that Maersk has so far been able to pass those costs on to customers via higher freight rates.

Freightos Baltic Index container price behavior has varied by lane, however, with transpacific rates up about $1,000/FEU compared to before the war, while Asia - Europe prices that climbed by a few hundred dollars per FEU in March have mostly slipped back to pre-war levels. Asia - N. Europe rates climbed by 10% last week to $2,850/FEU, but prices so far this week are trending down, similar to rate behavior to the Mediterranean earlier this month.

Carriers are planning additional, likely modest, increases for mid-month. In preparation, they are stepping up blanked sailings – with reports of east-west service space getting tight and some containers being rolled – to support higher spot rates during what is still a low demand stretch, and hoping peak season demand picks up to support prices later in the year.

The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report projects June arrivals to be 2% lower than May, with volumes increasing 4% month on month in July before easing slightly in August and further in September. If these estimates materialize, transpacific peak season will be a muted one relative to recent years, with the July peak 8% lower than last year’s tariff driven burst, but also 6% lower than the August peak in 2024.

The NRF suggests that this relative weakness reflects importer caution due to current economic uncertainty. Maersk’s Clerc also suggests that a coming downturn in ocean demand due to higher consumer prices is possible and could make this year’s H2 challenging and possibly loss-making for carriers still facing elevated fuel costs.

In trade war news, President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing later this week for a summit aimed at stabilizing the US-China trade relationship – whose status quo will expire in November – but complicated by the Iran war.

US tariffs on China are lower at the moment than before the US Supreme Court invalidated Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs in February. The White House replaced IEEPA duties with a 10% global tariff based on Section 122 that is set to expire in late July, with the administration working to replace the 122 duty with Section 301-based IEEPA-like tariffs by then.

Last week though, the US Court of International Trade ruled that the president’s use of Section 122 was invalid. The ruling and the court-required refunds were limited to the specific plaintiffs in the case, but open the door for other businesses to sue as well. The White House has appealed the ruling and asked that the tariffs stay in place during the appeals process or until they expire, but these developments do set the stage for another possible widespread tariff refund.

Freightos Weekly Update - May 5, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 2%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 10%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) increased 7%.

Analysis:

A newly-launched US operation to facilitate vessel transits out of the Gulf is leading to increased tension and some renewal of fighting in the Middle East.

US support, including by navy vessels, succeeded in getting two US-flagged ships through the Strait of Hormuz early this week, but Iranian attacks on both the commercial and naval vessels, the US response which sank several Iranian boats, and Iranian missile and drone strikes on the UAE mark firsts since the current ceasefire took effect nearly a month ago, and increase the risk of a ceasefire collapse.

The US operation in its current form will not likely be able to fully reopen the Strait, and so would face difficulties in meaningfully increasing global oil supply. For the container and air cargo markets then, the current developments do not change much.

For ocean freight, the closure continues to put carriers under cost pressure from elevated bunker prices, though so far actual fuel shortages are minimal. Ocean supply-demand dynamics during the typically slow months, however, are limiting the impact that carriers’ Emergency Fuel Surcharges and other planned increases are having on spot rates.

Transpacific container rates ticked up 2% to the West Coast and climbed 10% to the East Coast last week, for a gradual increase of about $1,000/FEU – a 50% gain – since the start of the war. These increases are significant, especially as they are sticking during a low demand stretch, but are still not much different than levels seen in the lead up to Lunar New Year before the war, are nowhere near levels hit due to other recent crises, and are mostly below levels targeted by GRIs.

Asia - Europe rates have slid back to about pre-war levels, with N. Europe prices now just $100/FEU higher than late February, and Mediterranean prices just below their pre-war level. Asia - Mediterranean rates increased 7% last week, but daily prices this week are already trending down, erasing those gains and reflecting the difficulty carriers face in getting rate increases to take, especially on these lanes.

There are signs that manufacturing activity is slowing in some Far East countries as a result of higher input costs and supply constraint due to the war, which could impact peak season volumes. And some noted shifts in US consumer spending choices may also have ramifications for container levels in the coming months.

In another touchpoint between the war and trade, the success of the Trump-Xi summit set for mid-month in Beijing and aimed at stabilizing trade relations, may also be facing additional hurdles due to the war, as China has pushed back against new US sanctions related to Iranian oil.

Freightos Weekly Update - April 28, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 1%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 3%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Analysis:

Increased fuel costs from the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to keep container rates elevated during the post-Lunar New Year, pre-peak season, low demand season for ocean freight when prices normally reach their floor for the year.

Even with this pressure however, rates are well below spikes caused by recent disruptions like the Red Sea crisis and trade war frontloading.

Asia - Europe rates eased 3% last week to both N. Europe and the Mediterranean. Though prices on both lanes climbed by several hundred dollars in the first weeks of the war, N. Europe rates of $2,668/FEU are just 8% higher than before the war and Mediterranean prices at $3,527/FEU are 3% lower than in late February. Maersk recently cancelled an upcoming Asia - Europe GRI, and carriers have started to announce more blanked sailings.

War-related rate increase attempts have not succeeded in keeping prices on these lanes much above their pre-war baselines, but upward pressure from the conflict is likely keeping rates higher than they otherwise would be. Asia - Europe rates are more than 15% higher year on year for both lanes, and more than 50% above rate levels in October, the other most recent low-demand period.

On the transpacific carriers have had more success steadily pushing rates up and preventing backsliding since late February. Prices ticked up slightly for both coasts last week, with West Coast rates of $2,675/FEU up 45% compared to the start of the war and almost 90% higher than post-peak season levels back in October. East Coast prices at just below $4,000/FEU are 30% higher compared to just before the war, and 30% above the previous low-demand stretch in October.

Nonetheless, even with these increases, the low demand and high capacity environment – and possibly the moderate easing of oil and bunker rates compared to earlier highs since the start of the war in Iran – has not allowed rates to rise to the full announced GRI or various surcharge levels.

The next significant rate increase across these lanes could come with the start of peak season in June or July, though some observers warn that war-related rising costs for consumers could dampen shipper expectations and depress peak season volumes.

Containers continue to move to and from the Gulf states via the alternative routes developed since the Strait of Hormuz closure. But even with significantly lower volumes booked, the network is straining, with Maersk reporting that Gulf export containers are facing particular challenges. Even as import containers also face delays and high costs, Gemini is increasing capacity to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Port.

Freightos Weekly Update - April 21, 2026

Excerpts:

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index

Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 7%.

Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 4%.

Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 3%.

Analysis:

Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz was open on Friday – followed shortly thereafter with statements that it was closed – led to a brief rush for the exit and many u-turns. Subsequent attacks on vessels in the region as well as US blockade forces taking control of an Iranian cargo ship have meant no real change in the status quo, with the ceasefire expiration approaching and US-Iran negotiations uncertain.

For the container market in the region, operations to and from the Gulf via alternative ocean-landbridge routes remain challenging: Maersk suspending landside bookings for some cross border services to the UAE and out of Salalah. But while some accessible ports like UAE’s Khor Fakkan are congested and some carriers increase surcharges for Mideast feeder services out of India, other ports like Fujairah and Sohar are reportedly operating more smoothly.

The broader container market remains unaffected operationally though fuel costs are still the main concern.

But while carriers could face significant bunker shortages in the next two or three months if the strait doesn’t reopen; and while there is tight supply, especially for low sulfur fuel, in some important Asian hubs including Singapore; early reports of real shortages in places like Singapore may have been overstated, and in general terms there is still enough bunker fuel supply in the Far East – for now.

Bunker fuel prices are 55% higher than before the war, but are down 15% from their peak a month ago and have eased 9% since the start of the month. This correction in fuel prices, together with the current seasonally low demand and continued high capacity levels may be combining to limit the overall impact of the crisis on container rates.

During the March - April stretch when freight rates typically ease until the summer peak season demand picks up, fuel surcharges and other price increases this year have indeed put upward pressure on rates. And prices are up year on year for most of the major trades. But carriers have so far mostly not succeeded in pushing rates up to the full announced surcharge or GRI levels.

Transpacific rates ticked up again last week, and are about $800/FEU higher than before the war for both coasts, but nonetheless remain below their levels reached ahead of Lunar New Year. Rates from Asia - N. Europe of about $2,700/FEU are just 9% higher than at the end of February, and Asia - Mediterranean prices that climbed in March are now 5% lower than before the war. Rates on both lanes are down more than 11% so far in April amid reports of ongoing discounting, though some carriers are nonetheless announcing additional GRIs for May.

Barring a significant spike in fuel prices or an actual shortage in fuel supply and availability, rate behavior since the start of the war may indicate that the chances of significant spot rate increases are slim until peak season. And in the background is the possibility that the war and its impact on inflation rates could subdue consumer demand and peak season container volumes with it.