u/Hairy_Builder6419 — reddlx

I'm having about a 20% success rate and I feel quite confident in identifying good patterns, however I'm losing money.

The core issue looking over my trades of the past 2-3 weeks is that the prices at market open mostly start near the low of the consolidation area, meaning by the time a breakout happens the stock is already up 4-6% on the day and the low of day is too far. Most of the time they squat back down and I sell by end of day for a loss.

My most profitable trades, and smallest losses, are when the market opens and the price is very close (or above completely) the top of the local consolidation range. This allows a very close stop. For example POET on 4/20 which started near the top of the local consolidation range (prior day was what I used) allowing me to get in early and set a stop at low of day without issue. I sold on the 3rd day because nothing's been working and it was very overextended, and it crashed completely back to my buy point by the 6th day which I guess was luck on my part.

My primary filter is ADR > 5%, $ vol > 10mm, market cap > 500m, and only looking at the top 90% those stocks off the absolute lows (TC2000 minl) over the last 1-6 months. Most of these have been oil/energy/bio related, and a ton of them are in downtrends on a monthly/quarterly chart, and/or under 200dma.

I've watched maybe 10 hours of Q streams which isn't much, and unfortunately he rarely shows exactly how he's entering. I do notice that often times he gets an alert for resistance broken, but then he moves the alert even higher to wait for the price to come up more. This is totally arbitrary to me but maybe this is some type of validation he's looking for that I'm missing.

I'm also unaware of how good the market is or isn't for this strategy. I'm seeing lots of position traders kill it, which tells me this should be working too, but maybe that's not 1:1.