Gemini was assuming:
that Reddit has 25% growth over the next five years instead of 70% growth, GAAP earnings
that Reddit dilute shares at 3% per year due to SBC
that the EV / GAAP earnings / growth ratio remains around 2.0 in 2031
I think we are secretly hoping that Reddit will grow faster than 25% per year.
It might not be this year or next year, but RDDT will get to $1000. Think of how many stocks that you missed out on five years ago that you wish you could go back in time and buy right now.
Revenue growth , earning growth, balance sheet, all phenomenal. Plus, they are selling our posts to train OpenAI and Gemini, who will pay more and more over the years.
EDIT: roughly 8 year target, compounding around 26%
Year 1 , $195
Year 2, $250
Year 3, $320 etc…
seems very doable
Wow this one moves!
We see a lot of backtests over the wonderful last 17 years and it often ends in tens of millions. Has anyone actually made that much or are most of us in the 5 figures and hoping the next couple years go well stage?.
Frustrated that I’m not keeping pace with QQQ over the last three or four years. Decided to sell almost all of my individual stocks. Now my taxable account looks something like this.
Rough numbers, I haven’t done the exact math
47% QLD
47% BINC
5% SVXY since we are in contango
More than one percent invested in a Reddit call spread for January 2027, 100/250, out of everything I decided to keep this one
I am also short, some puts that I don’t want to close until they’re worth like $.15 each
But that’s it, the plan is to buy more QLD and possibly buy some TQQQ on a big drop, that’s why I’m keeping so much money in BINC because it doesn’t move much at all and pays 5%.
Selling calls and watching everyone else make money hurts much worse than selling puts and watching the stock drop.
Plus calls can be much harder to roll because there is no fear value.
I see a lot of people that are being sloppy with this the last two months.
In general, if you own 100 shares of a stock, pick a strike price that you would be absolutely thrilled to sell your shares at. Other than that do not sell covered calls.
I’m just telling you from experience, watching Meta in 2023 was rough.