Ahh finally we are past the big day. Yesterday’s earnings season just gave us a rare, simultaneous look at what the four biggest tech companies on the planet are actually planning for the next 12 months. And the capex numbers are genuinely staggering. Let's break this down.
First the actual earnings were great across the board
Before getting into the macro story, the results themselves were strong:
Google: $109.9B revenue (+22%), net income up 81%, Google Cloud up 63%
Meta: $56.3B revenue (+33%), net income up 61%
Amazon: $181.5B revenue (+17%), AWS up 28% fastest growth in 15 quarters
Microsoft: $82.9B revenue (+18%), Azure up 40%
Every single company beat revenue estimates.
Operating margins are expanding. These aren't struggling businesses scrambling to justify AI spending, they're already seeing the returns. That context matters for everything below.
Now here's the part that should get your attention
These four companies are collectively planning to spend somewhere in the range of $500 billion on capital expenditure in 2026. Most of that is AI infrastructure data centers, custom chips, networking, power.
Here's how the individual commitments break down:
Google raised its 2026 capex guidance to up to $190 billion this quarter and said spending will "significantly increase" again in 2027
Meta raised its 2026 AI capex forecast to $125–145 billion (up from earlier guidance)
Microsoft is guiding toward roughly $190 billion in capex for the full year
Amazon hasn't given a fixed number but AWS is actively capacity-constrained meaning demand is literally exceeding what they can build.
Feels like big tech’s AI capex is running the whole US market or even economy. When it slows we go down.