u/Fun_Huckleberry3940

Was looking at expired contract data on Pursight.ai and ran the numbers: across 9,872 expired contracts since FY2021, incumbents only retained 77.5%. That's 22% displacement rate which honestly was much higher than I expected.

Breakdown by vulnerability score:

• 0-10 score leading to 21.8% displacement
• 10-20 score also leading to 33.3% displacement
• 40+ was even higher

Which means if you're targeting high-vulnerability recompetes (bridge contracts, low offer count, weak incumbent), you're fishing where the fish actually are.

For context, these are "incumbent won re-compete" vs "challenger won." Bridge contracts alone have 40%+ displacement in the data.

Am I reading this wrong or is the conventional "incumbents always win" wisdom just outdated?