
Arizona, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa would remain the only states with competitive races where the current maps would be kept the same (not counting for like Idaho, Montana and West Virginia)
Washington, Colorado, California, Illinois, New York would all have to retain a few red sinks because of incumbent interests (the main reason Pritzker has not yet redrawn IL)
Even if Democrats win a narrow trifecta in PA or WI, I don't think they will gerrymander these states for 2028. Maximum they can do is go for a controverted, but proportional, 4-4 WI through the courts. Minnesota is also unlikely to gerrymander, although it's more possible they do it. Democrats tried to net a seat there in 2021 and were blocked by the courts, who ended up drawing the map.