u/Franzisquin

▲ 10 r/YAPms

Arizona, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa would remain the only states with competitive races where the current maps would be kept the same (not counting for like Idaho, Montana and West Virginia)

Washington, Colorado, California, Illinois, New York would all have to retain a few red sinks because of incumbent interests (the main reason Pritzker has not yet redrawn IL)

Even if Democrats win a narrow trifecta in PA or WI, I don't think they will gerrymander these states for 2028. Maximum they can do is go for a controverted, but proportional, 4-4 WI through the courts. Minnesota is also unlikely to gerrymander, although it's more possible they do it. Democrats tried to net a seat there in 2021 and were blocked by the courts, who ended up drawing the map.

u/Franzisquin — 12 days ago
▲ 16 r/YAPms

Most of these maps are zeroed out. They might not follow state-specific rules in some cases (like Iowa) but do follow it in others (like Ohio and West Virginia.)

This map was made prioritizing (in this order)

1 - Respect for natural boundaries
2 - Separation of Urban and Rural areas as much as possible
3 - Demographical cohesiveness (including race)
4 - Geographical compactness
5 - Respect for political boundaries (counties, cities)
6 - Proportionality to election results (most maps that follow the previous ones will also be decently proportional. Some states have inherent geographical biases and violating them to achieve proportional results at the local level is also bad and a form of gerrymandering)

Trump won a few districts that would likely get a Democrat as their representative, these would be:

WA-2 (Vancouver and Aberdeen)
CA-21 (Fresno and Clovis urban agglomeration)
TX-15 (Most of Hidalgo County)
TX-29 (Most of Fort Bend County)
FL-22 (West Palm Beach)
NY-4 (South Nassau County)
MI-8 (Flint and Saginaw)
MA-1 (Southwest and Fall River)

With my tweaks: Golden (narrowly), Vasquez, Lee, Suozzi would all lose their seats. MGP would likely run in the 2nd, but would no longer live inside her district.

On the Republicans that represent Harris districts: Don Bacon would lose, Lawler's would be made redder and not really competitive anymore, and Fitzpatrick's would be made just slightly redder by the addition of Far Northeast Philly to the district. There could be some new personal opportunities for some people like Larry Hogan, who could win easily in Maryland's light blue Harris district.

u/Franzisquin — 13 days ago