I’ve had a decent amount of success calling underrated songs in recent years and I feel like I know this year’s songs well enough to make my predictions now. Here goes nothing…
Ukraine 🇺🇦 - The consensus among the fandom seems to be treating this like a replacement level Ukrainian entry, often ranked somewhere around 20th. I think it will ultimately do much better than that and not just because of politics. It’s a dramatic rollercoaster of a song with some very impressive vocal acrobatics and we know that Ukraine always delivers with the staging. I get that the Vidbir staging was underwhelming and maybe some people are still disappointed that she beat out Jerry Heil or whoever their favorite was, but none of that will matter next week. This very much meets the viewing public’s expectations of Ukraine and, combined with a strong diaspora vote and general goodwill toward the country, I fully expect LELÉKA to finish in the top 5 in the grand final.
Czechia 🇨**🇿** - If this entry was sent by any other country it would be in the winner conversation. These kinds of anthemic dark pop songs have done very well in recent years: Duncan Laurence, Gjon’s Tears, Nemo, JJ, etc. Daniel’s vocal range is incredible, he’s already proven he can deliver live, and what we know about the staging so far is very promising. With the juries back in the semis this year, this is not a borderline qualifier at all. He will be safely in the grand final and comfortably on the left side.
Armenia 🇦🇲 - Paloma Rumba feels like the forgotten party anthem behind Greece and Moldova. Luckily for Simón, he doesn’t have to compete against either of them in his semifinal. His closest competition is Bulgaria and I think there’s room for both to qualify, but I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he qualifies over Dara, which would be considered a “shock” according to the odds and most of the fandom. I think we’ll see yet another staging glow-up, a la Parg last year, and ultimately no one will be too shocked when Armenia qualifies.
Portugal 🇵**🇹** - Another year of Eurovision, another year of the fandom sleeping on Portugal. You think we’d learn by now. Sure, this is not the most epic song ever, but it is distinctly authentic and completely in its own lane. This will have its fans among demographics that are underrepresented in the Eurofan bubble. It reminds me of Cyprus 2015, a moment of calm and simplicity among a sea of slickness and bombast. This contrast is its strength and I think it will qualify as a result, although I am less confident now than I was a week ago after seeing the sneak peek photos, which are admittedly underwhelming.
San Marino 🇸🇲 - Yup, San Marino. I get it. It’s basic. It’s a by-the-numbers RuPaul-style club track that’s all glitz and no substance. The thing is, a lot of people still tune into Eurovision expecting and enjoying songs like this. Senhit is a Eurovision pro at this point and for ladies and gays of a certain age, Boy George still has star power and him coming out on stage will be a legitimate moment that will attract votes. If the semis were still televote-only I’d feel more comfortable predicting this to qualify, but I’ll simply say that the way it’s being written off as DOA by the odds and most fans is premature and I highly doubt this will actually finish last in the semi. It’s unlikely that both Portugal and San Marino can shock qualify from this semi, which seems to be the more predictable of the two, so I’ll simply predict that one of them does.
Other songs I considered including: Lithuania 🇱🇹 (I feel like he already gets enough “underrated” buzz that he’s more or less properly rated at this point); Latvia 🇱🇻 (absolutely brutal running order but I still think she can qualify with juries back in the semis); Luxembourg 🇱🇺 (another song in its own lane with a style of music that is still quite popular; I just have a hard time seeing her break through in SF2, especially given her running order).
Do you agree or disagree with my picks? Who else do you think is being underrated this year?