u/Flashy-Assignment-95 — reddlx

(New to the sub) Details:

married, both 49, HHI 250k; we're late to the party re: HHI and investing so we live below our means, Mod-Low COL.
- 28k invested for retirement every year, 4k to a Roth 457b, rest to a Trad 401k (max'd)
- paying partly OOP for college costs, will be using more 529 funds which will cover all college costs going forward (trying to leave this out of the calcs for simplicity)
640k in Trad 401k
25k in Trad 457
100k in Trad former employer 401ks
targeting retirement at 63/2040 due to:
- house paid off (200k equity, 2.75% rate) in that year
- my pension drops early retirement penalties to pay out 72k/yr beginning that year. This is a VERY secure pension, much more secure than my state job itself.
SSI:
- me: 35k/yr aiming for age 65,
- spouse: 47k/yr aiming for age 68 (she has fam health history and the highter salary on her side)
no other debt besides the 2.75% mortgage
estimating retirement spending to be 220k/year (current HHI - retirement investment)
We have the FOO mostly covered, but have not maxed Roth contributions since Roth investing was not an option until we got into the 24% bracket.

I have run the FIRECalc sims, the Engaging Data Sims, and the Coast-Fire sims. Projection Lab as well. They seem to come back with mostly good news (some are crazy good news, some are 50-50, but mostly seem to me we're on track).

I guess my questions are:

Am I really just about 100% to retire at 63? LOL need informed humans to encourage me
These calcs seem so rate dependent: inflation/investment growth adjustments by a 0.5% change my coast fire date by 2-3 years at a time. They change my reitrement outlook odds from 97%+ to 57-75%. Is my financial situation riding on a knife's edge, or is this pretty normal?
Relatedly, how do you estimate future spend, inflation, investment? The most pessimistic outlook makes it so that retirement might not be possible until 67-68. Then again, reasonably optimistic numbers put investments shooting to the moon in 20 years.
is it worth doing catch-up contibutions next year at age 50? If so, Roth or Trad?
Would doing Roth conversions at some point be a good plan to become more tax efficient re: RMDs at age 75? If so, is it then worth it to keep currently investing the 4k into Roth 457b or change that to Trad 457b investments?

Thanks in advance-