Summaries of the 2026 Montana political races and general political outlook. ChatGPT Quick and Dirty version. (full candidate summary at the bottom)
Gallatin County is arguably the political center of gravity in Montana in 2026. Between Bozeman’s rapid growth, Montana State University, escalating housing costs, and an influx of new residents, the county is becoming one of the few places where Democrats are gaining strength while Republicans still remain highly competitive. That makes nearly every major race in the county politically important.
Here’s an in-depth look at the major races and issues affecting Gallatin County residents.
The political landscape of Gallatin County
Gallatin County is no longer politically simple:
- Bozeman proper trends increasingly Democratic.
- Belgrade remains strongly Republican.
- Rural areas lean conservative-libertarian.
- Big Sky and resort communities are more moderate and environmentally focused.
- Younger voters and newcomers are reshaping turnout patterns.
The county is now one of the fastest-growing and most politically dynamic regions in the state. Housing affordability, growth management, property taxes, public lands, infrastructure, and cultural polarization dominate local politics more than traditional agriculture issues alone.
1. U.S. Senate race (statewide, but heavily felt in Gallatin County)
Main candidates
Kurt Alme (Republican)
- Former U.S. Attorney.
- Strong backing from:
- Donald Trump,
- Steve Daines,
- Montana GOP leadership.
- Running as a conventional conservative:
- pro-energy,
- anti-regulation,
- law-and-order focused.
Reilly Neill (Democrat)
- Former Livingston-area legislator.
- Trying to revive a Jon Tester–style coalition:
- labor,
- rural moderates,
- public lands voters,
- younger progressives.
Seth Bodnar (Independent)
- Former president of the University of Montana.
- Army veteran and Rhodes Scholar.
- Running explicitly against partisan politics.
- Especially interesting in Gallatin County because:
- college-educated independents,
- moderate Republicans,
- and unaffiliated newcomers may be receptive to an independent candidacy.
Libertarians
- Kyle Austin
- Tom Jandron
Gallatin County outlook for the Senate race
Gallatin County may become:
- one of the strongest Democratic counties in the state,
- but also one of the best counties for Bodnar.
That creates unusually complicated vote dynamics:
- Republicans likely dominate Belgrade and rural precincts.
- Democrats dominate MSU and central Bozeman.
- Bodnar could perform very well among:
- independents,
- professionals,
- veterans,
- and moderate suburban voters.
This county could become one of the key indicators of whether Bodnar is truly viable statewide.
2. U.S. House — Congressional District 1
Gallatin County sits inside Montana’s western congressional district (CD1), now an open seat after Ryan Zinke retired. This is probably the most competitive federal race in Montana.
Republicans
Christi Jacobsen
- Current Secretary of State.
- Institutional GOP favorite.
- Strong ties to state Republican infrastructure.
Aaron Flint
- Conservative radio host.
- Highly aligned with Trump-style populism.
- Particularly polarizing in Bozeman-area politics.
Albert Olszewski
- Physician and longtime conservative candidate.
- Appeals to hardline conservative voters.
Democrats
Ryan Busse
- Former gun industry executive turned gun-reform advocate.
- Strong name recognition after the 2024 governor race.
- Likely strongest Democratic contender.
Sam Forstag
- Smokejumper and labor-oriented progressive.
- Appeals to younger and left-populist voters.
Matt Rains
- Rancher emphasizing rural and agricultural issues.
Why this race matters to Gallatin County
Gallatin County is probably the most electorally important county in CD1:
- Missoula is deeply Democratic,
- Flathead strongly Republican,
- but Gallatin is growing fastest and politically shifting.
If Democrats win CD1, it almost certainly means:
- overwhelming Bozeman turnout,
- strong suburban performance,
- and weaker GOP margins in Belgrade than usual.
3. Montana Legislature — the real battleground for Gallatin residents
These races directly affect:
- zoning,
- housing policy,
- property taxes,
- infrastructure funding,
- schools,
- and growth regulation.
All 100 House seats and half the Senate seats are up in 2026.
Key Gallatin-area Senate districts
Senate District 31
Covers south Bozeman and Huffine area.
Candidates
- Kathleen Williams (D)
- Former congressional candidate.
- High-profile moderate Democrat.
- Richard Aungier (R)
Outlook
Lean Democratic, but competitive.
This may become one of the marquee legislative races in Montana.
Senate District 32
Northwest Bozeman.
Candidates
- Becky Edwards (D)
- Kelly Kortum (D)
- Neal Ganser (R)
Dynamic
This Democratic primary is especially important because:
- both Edwards and Kortum are established Bozeman Democrats,
- and the district itself increasingly favors Democrats.
The Democratic primary may effectively decide the seat.
Senate District 34
Belgrade-focused district.
Candidates
- Shelley Vance (R)
- Caleb Hinkle (R)
- Carl Anderson (D)
Why it matters
This race reflects the GOP civil war happening statewide:
- establishment conservatives vs.
- harder-right populists.
The Gallatin GOP formally endorsed Caleb Hinkle.
Key Gallatin-area House races
House District 61 (MSU area)
One of the most Democratic districts in Montana outside Missoula.
Candidates
- Rio Roland (D)
- Chris Gray (D)
- Eric Jacobs (R)
Main issues
- renter protections,
- housing costs,
- student turnout,
- climate policy,
- public transit.
House Districts 62–66
These Bozeman-area districts are rapidly becoming key swing or lean-Democratic seats.
Main issues:
- growth management,
- property taxes,
- infrastructure,
- school funding,
- short-term rentals,
- traffic.
These races will help determine whether Democrats can chip away at Republican legislative control.
House Districts 67–68 (Belgrade)
More conservative and culturally Republican.
Main themes:
- anti-tax politics,
- skepticism toward Bozeman growth,
- conservative social politics,
- property rights.
These districts are key to whether Republicans maintain dominance in Gallatin County outside Bozeman proper.
4. Local elections and school/trustee races
Gallatin County also has:
- school board races,
- fire district elections,
- local trustee contests,
- and county-level offices on the ballot.
These races increasingly matter because:
- growth pressures are enormous,
- schools are overcrowding,
- infrastructure funding is strained,
- and local tax debates are intensifying.
Housing and growth management are now deeply tied to school politics in the county.
5. Judicial and ballot initiative fights
Montana Supreme Court Justice Seat #4 is actually one of the most important races in the state in 2026, even though it’s technically nonpartisan. The race has become deeply politically significant because the Montana Supreme Court has repeatedly blocked or limited Republican-backed laws on:
- abortion,
- voting rights,
- environmental regulation,
- judicial independence,
- transgender rights,
- and ballot initiatives.
The seat is open because Justice Beth Baker is retiring after two terms.
The candidates for Supreme Court Seat #4
Amy Eddy
Current position
- Flathead County District Court judge.
Background
- Longtime Montana attorney and district judge.
- Generally viewed as:
- institutional,
- cautious,
- and judicially traditional.
Campaign style
Eddy is explicitly trying to run as a genuinely nonpartisan judicial candidate. She has publicly criticized efforts to make judicial races openly partisan and criticized laws allowing direct party financial involvement in judicial races.
Likely support base
She is likely to perform best among:
- moderates,
- traditional legal-community voters,
- Democrats,
- independents,
- and voters concerned about preserving judicial independence.
Key themes
- Judicial restraint.
- Court independence.
- Rule of law.
- Keeping politics out of courts.
Political context
Although officially nonpartisan, many observers see Eddy as the candidate more aligned with the court’s current moderate-to-centrist institutional direction. The Montana Supreme Court has recently issued several rulings unpopular with the Republican Legislature, including on election law and transgender rights.
Dan Wilson
Current position
- Flathead County District Court judge.
- Previously ran unsuccessfully for the Montana Supreme Court in 2024.
Background
- Conservative-leaning judicial candidate.
- Has become the preferred candidate of many Montana Republicans.
Campaign style
Wilson has been much more willing than Eddy to engage with ideological conservative networks and Republican-aligned political groups. Reports note that he headlined a Montana Republican Party event and has been openly embraced by conservatives who want to reshape the judiciary.
Likely support base
He is likely strongest among:
- Republican voters,
- social conservatives,
- constitutional conservatives,
- and voters frustrated with recent Montana Supreme Court rulings.
Key themes
- Constitutional originalism.
- Judicial accountability.
- Skepticism toward “activist courts.”
- More conservative judicial interpretation.
Political significance
Many Montana Republicans increasingly see the judiciary as a top political priority after repeated legal defeats in the courts. Wilson’s candidacy is effectively part of a larger conservative effort to shift the ideological balance of Montana’s judiciary.
Why this race matters so much -
Normally judicial races in Montana were fairly low-profile. That has changed dramatically.
The Montana Supreme Court has become central to fights over:
- abortion rights,
- election laws,
- campaign finance,
- environmental regulation,
- direct democracy initiatives,
- separation of powers,
- and transgender rights.
The Legislature has also repeatedly debated:
- weakening judicial authority,
- electing judges by partisan districts,
- or restructuring the courts entirely.
So although this race is “nonpartisan” on paper, it is increasingly functioning like a proxy ideological battle.
What Gallatin County voters should know -
Gallatin County will likely matter a lot here because:
- Bozeman-area voters tend to support judicial independence more strongly than many rural counties,
- the county has a large educated professional electorate,
- and turnout in Gallatin can substantially affect statewide judicial races.
Historically:
- Missoula + Gallatin + Helena-area turnout has often been decisive in competitive Supreme Court races.
Current outlook -
At the moment:
- the race appears genuinely competitive,
- but slightly favors whichever side better nationalizes judicial politics.
Eddy advantages
- More traditional judicial profile.
- Appeals to independents.
- Likely stronger among moderates and legal professionals.
Wilson advantages
Strong conservative grassroots enthusiasm.
- GOP organizational support.
- Republicans increasingly energized around court issues.
Overall, this may end up being one of the single most consequential statewide races in Montana in 2026 despite receiving much less attention than the Senate race.
Gallatin County voters will also weigh in on:
- judicial races,
- and possible ballot initiatives on campaign finance, direct democracy, and election rules.
Gallatin County tends to be:
- more supportive of judicial independence,
- more favorable to abortion rights,
- and more supportive of direct-democracy protections than many rural counties.
That means county turnout could strongly affect statewide initiative results.
The biggest themes shaping Gallatin County politics in 2026
Housing affordability
Probably the single dominant issue.
Bozeman’s housing costs have transformed politics:
- renters vs. homeowners,
- growth advocates vs. anti-growth residents,
- density fights,
- short-term rental disputes,
- infrastructure stress.
Growth and identity
Many longtime residents feel Gallatin County is changing too fast:
- rising costs,
- new wealth,
- cultural polarization,
- traffic,
- and development pressure.
This tension cuts across party lines.
Public lands and outdoor economy
Still hugely important:
- access,
- conservation,
- recreation,
- tourism economy,
- and federal land management.
Political realignment
Gallatin County is increasingly becoming:
- the Democratic anchor of Montana outside Missoula, while
- Belgrade and outer county areas become more Republican.
That urban-suburban-rural divide is now central to Montana politics.
Overall 2026 outlook for Gallatin County
| Race | Likely Direction |
|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Competitive, GOP edge statewide |
| CD1 House race | True battleground |
| Bozeman legislative seats | Lean Democratic |
| Belgrade legislative seats | Lean Republican |
| Countywide politics | Increasingly polarized but competitive |
Gallatin County probably won’t determine every statewide race by itself — but in 2026 it may become the single most politically influential county in Montana outside the governor’s mansion and Helena legislative leadership.
*** Full Candidate list below ***
U.S. Senate (statewide)
This is Montana’s biggest race in 2026 because Steve Daines unexpectedly retired shortly before filing closed, creating the first true open Senate seat in decades.
Republicans
Kurt Alme
- Former U.S. Attorney for Montana.
- Strong backing from:
- Donald Trump,
- Steve Daines,
- Tim Sheehy,
- Montana GOP leadership.
- Conventional institutional conservative candidate.
- Heavy favorite for GOP nomination.
Lee Calhoun
- Mechanical engineer from Whitefish.
- Grassroots conservative outsider campaign.
- Limited fundraising and organization so far.
Charles Walking Child
- Frequent statewide candidate.
- Populist/anti-establishment messaging.
- Appeals to protest-vote conservatives and independent-minded rural voters.
Trey Gregory
- Lower-profile Republican candidate.
- Running more as a constitutional conservative outsider.
- Limited statewide visibility so far.
Democrats
Reilly Neill
- Former state legislator from Livingston.
- Seen as the strongest Democratic candidate organizationally.
- Focus:
- rural outreach,
- labor,
- affordability,
- public lands.
Alani Bankhead
- Air Force veteran and leadership coach.
- Emphasizing coalition-building and practical governance.
- Appeals to moderate and veteran voters.
Michael Black Wolf
- Tribal historic preservation officer.
- Native advocacy, conservation, anti-MAGA themes.
- More activist-progressive lane.
Michael Hummert
- Navy veteran and businessman.
- Anti-establishment populist Democrat.
- Previously ran in 2024.
Christopher Kehoe
- Lower-profile Democratic candidate.
- Running on institutional reform and constitutional themes.
- Minimal statewide media coverage so far.
Libertarians
Kyle Austin
- Pharmacist, farmer, former Republican.
- Libertarian on:
- healthcare reform,
- limited government,
- civil liberties.
Tom Jandron
- Aviation professional.
- Strong anti-war and anti-intervention messaging.
- More ideological libertarian lane.
Independent
Seth Bodnar
- Former University of Montana president.
- Army veteran and Rhodes Scholar.
- Running explicitly against party polarization.
- Potentially strongest independent Senate candidate Montana has seen in decades.
U.S. House — Congressional District 1 (Gallatin County)
This is western Montana’s congressional district and likely Montana’s most competitive federal race after Ryan Zinke retired.
Republicans
Christi Jacobsen
- Current Montana Secretary of State.
- Institutional GOP favorite.
- Strong fundraising and party infrastructure.
Aaron Flint
- Conservative radio host.
- Trump-aligned populist candidate.
- Especially strong among hardline conservatives.
Albert Olszewski
- Physician and former state senator.
- Frequent statewide Republican candidate.
- Running as experienced movement conservative.
Ray Curtis
- Educator and grassroots conservative.
- Lower-profile outsider campaign.
Democrats
Ryan Busse
- Former firearms executive turned gun-industry critic.
- 2024 Democratic gubernatorial nominee.
- Strongest statewide name recognition among Democrats.
Sam Forstag
- Smokejumper and labor-oriented progressive.
- Strong among younger left-wing voters.
Matt Rains
- Rancher and rural-focused Democrat.
- Emphasizes agriculture and water policy.
Russell Cleveland
- Education consultant.
- Lower-profile policy-oriented Democrat.
Independent / Libertarian
Kimberly Persico
- Independent candidate.
- Limited public campaign infrastructure so far.
Nick Sheehy
- Libertarian candidate.
- Running on smaller-government and liberty themes.
Gallatin-area Montana Senate races
These races directly affect:
- housing,
- zoning,
- taxes,
- infrastructure,
- schools,
- and development policy.
Senate District 31
Kathleen Williams (D)
- Former congressional candidate.
- Moderate Democrat with strong name recognition.
Richard Aungier (R)
- Republican challenger.
- More traditional conservative campaign.
Senate District 32
Becky Edwards (D)
- Current state representative.
- Housing and healthcare focused.
Kelly Kortum (D)
- Progressive labor-oriented Democrat.
- Strong renter and affordability messaging.
Neal Ganser (R)
- Republican candidate.
- Fiscal conservative focus.
Senate District 34
Shelley Vance (R)
- Established Republican legislator.
- More institutional conservative.
Caleb Hinkle (R)
- Hard-right populist conservative.
- Strong Gallatin GOP activist support.
Carl Anderson (D)
- Democratic candidate in heavily Republican territory.
Gallatin-area House races
House District 61 (MSU / central Bozeman)
Rio Roland (D)
- Progressive grassroots candidate.
- Strong on renters, affordability, climate.
Chris Gray (D)
- More institutional Democrat.
- Education and healthcare emphasis.
Eric Jacobs (R)
- Republican nominee candidate.
- Conservative approach to taxes and growth.
House District 64
Daniel Ricardo Martinez (R)
- Conservative candidate.
Brady Bremer (D)
- Democratic challenger.
House District 68
Jennifer Carlson (R)
- Republican candidate with more institutional conservative support.
Randy Chamberlin (R)
- Republican challenger from a more grassroots lane.
Jocelyn Kent (D)
- Democratic candidate competing in conservative territory.
Nearby Gallatin-influence districts
House District 69
- Trevor Walter (R)
- Ken Walsh (R-incumbent)
House District 77
- Jane Gillette (R-incumbent)
- Deborah Anne Hansen (D)
These matter because Manhattan, Three Forks, and western Gallatin growth corridors increasingly influence southwest Montana politics.
Local Gallatin County races
Candidate fields are still evolving for:
- county commission,
- school board,
- fire district boards,
- local trustee elections,
- and municipal races.
The major local political issues are:
- housing affordability,
- growth management,
- school overcrowding,
- property taxes,
- transportation,
- and water infrastructure.
Overall political picture in Gallatin County
Gallatin County is becoming Montana’s key political battleground because:
- Bozeman trends increasingly Democratic,
- Belgrade remains strongly Republican,
- and independents are growing rapidly.
The county now has:
- establishment conservatives,
- populist Republicans,
- moderate Democrats,
- democratic social progressives,
- libertarians,
- and strong independent voters all competing seriously at the same time.
That ideological diversity is why Gallatin County is likely to be one of the most closely watched regions in Montana in 2026.