Seems like retail is catching on to the next trade, Robotics. I wrote up a thesis on X about why I think OUST can hit $100 a share by 2028, worth a read. Its not AI slop.
https://x.com/eventuallyright/status/2054027531435548899?s=20
Have you actually run the numbers on $OUST?
If so, it's hard to be bearish below $30.
The estimated TAM by 2030 is $70B so Ouster analysts forecasting for 1.3% penetration by 2030.
That's a very conservative assumption...but one we can base our estimates on for a more base case.
$900M in revenue by 2030 means 40% CAGR in revenue for the next 5 years.
A very good assumption considering management forecast 30-50% annual revenue growth for the foreseeable future.
$900M in revenue at 7x sales gives (also conservative given a 40% CAGR), gives you a $6.3B market cap.
It's $1.6B today.
More numbers...
Profitability is only a matter of time. Late 2027 seems right for adjusted EBITDA breakeven.
The Operating Leverage Math:
Ouster's total operating expenses through the first nine months of 2025 were ~$121M, with R&D at $50M, G&A at $50M, and S&M at $21M. That puts full-year 2025 opex around $160M. Management has committed to GAAP opex growth of only 5–8% from 2025 levels going forward — which is the single most important number in this whole story and the one people are glossing over.
2025 revenue: $169M, gross profit ~$83M (49% GAAP gross margin)
2025 opex: ~$160M → operating loss ~$77M
If opex grows only 5–8% annually and revenue grows 30–50%, the gap closes fast
Model it out simply at the midpoints:
2026: ~$220M revenue, ~$108M gross profit (49% margin), ~$168M opex → ~$60M operating loss
2027: ~$290M revenue, ~$130M gross profit, ~$178M opex → ~$48M operating loss on GAAP, but Adj. EBITDA breakeven is plausible because stock-based comp (~$25–30M) and D&A (~$15M) are addbacks
2028: ~$380M revenue, ~$160M gross profit, ~$187M opex → GAAP operating breakeven territory
I think $UMAC is STILL in the early days of growth and true scale. With the Orlando plant complete, demand already in place, the last piece of the puzzle is regulatory policy from the US Gov.
Thats all about to come into place next month:
A lot of people are missing how U.S. drone policy is actually tightening — it’s not one big headline, it’s a series of deadlines that force the shift.
Two dates matter:
May 20, 2026
Federal agencies have to update procurement policies to comply with NDAA-related restrictions. This is when enforcement starts to become standardized across government buyers. In practice, it means more RFPs requiring non-Chinese / compliant components.
January 1, 2027
Temporary exemptions expire (Blue UAS and related transition allowances). This is the real inflection point — the system moves from “transition phase” to actual enforcement. If you’re not compliant by then, you’re likely out of federal workflows.
At the same time, the Pentagon is pushing a ~$54B shift toward AI and autonomous systems, including drones. The goal is pretty explicit: scale deployment while reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains.
