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u/Fine_Personality_999

▲ 128 r/EdmontonOilers

COL (56.39% xGF) and CAR (55.89% xGF) are now a combined 13 - 0 in the playoffs so far. They were also 1 and 2 in the regular season for 5v5 Expected Goals For %. The Oilers finished 11th.

Every year the fancies tell us the same story.

Watch out for the top xGF% teams at 5v5.

YES, both CAR and COL could lose in the 3rd round (or even this round, though it's statistically unlikely). But it's amazing how consistent this model is at predicting playoff success.

OTT was 3rd (lost to CAR in rd 1).

TBL was 4th (lost a heartbreaker to MTL).

VGK was 5th (still playing, beat UTAH who was 6th in xGF% during the regular season).

This 25-26 Oilers team did have elite stretches of play, most notably when Connor went nuclear through November+December, and post-Olympics when Drai was healthy.

But this Oilers team, be it the coaching (possible) or the roster itself (also flawed), never got it together like previous teams.

The Oilers 24' team was 2nd in 5v5 Expected Goals %. The 25' team was 3rd.

FLA was top 3 both seasons they won the Cup too.

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u/Fine_Personality_999 — 6 days ago