Guardrail system for complex (ie normal) retirement
Can anyone point me to a guardrail system for planning for early retirement where the withdrawal is not constant over time (meaning adjusted but based on a given initial withdrawal). Life is just rarely so neat as the examples seem to imply.
One example would be early retirement: If one retires at (say) 55 and starts social security at 70 portfolio withdrawals will be different (higher) for the first 15 years and then be reduced when social security kicks in.
Another example might be if you plan to move and you know you will have higher expenses that single year or two.
I can imagine so many scenarios where it is expected at the start that spending will not be tied to the first year withdrawal.
But all the guard rail systems I've seen start with a certain initial withdrawal and raise or lower it when guardrails are triggered based on portfolio value over time. But that's too simplistic for real planning purposes when withdrawals are not constant.
Thanks in advance for any help with this.
I will add:
The 4% rule is hardly better at handling real, ie complex retirement needs.
I've also seen risk based guardrails that use Monte Carlo chance of success to change withdrawals, but I'm suspicious in general of black box Monte Carlo simulations where the methods and assumptions are either not clear or perhaps use relatively few iterations (looking at you Boldin).