ok so I basically made a program which ranks the best rivalries in ipl since its inception in 2008 till day before Yesterday's match.
I will tell the metrics that I have used to calculate the index, if you have any other metric that would help in describing a good rivalry suggest them.
So first of all, I had to exclude LSG, GT, RPSG, GL and kochi tuskers since they had very few matches and are skewing the data.
So obviously a good rilvalry is one in which the. matches are very interesting and no one knows what happens until the very end, that is essentially the basis of my scoring
1. The Chasing Team Wins
We calculate a Base Ball Score and scale it down based on how dominant the batting side was (wickets left).
Base Ball Score (S_B):
Let B be the balls remaining.
- If B <= 2: 2.0 points
- If 2 < B<= 5: 1.0 point
- If B > 5: e^{-0.2 *(B - 5)}
Wicket Multiplier (M_W):
Let W be the wickets in hand. If a team wins with 8 wickets left, the match lacked tension, so the multiplier scales the score toward zero.
- If W <= 3: 1.0 (Full tension, lower order was exposed)
- If W > 3: max(0.1, 1 - 0.15 *(W - 3))
Chasing Match Score = S_B * M_W
2. The Defending Team Wins
We calculate a Base Margin Score and scale it down if the chasing team was bowled out early (lacking final-over tension).
Base Margin Score (S_R):
Let R be the Margin Percentage (Runs won by/target score)*100.
- If R <=1.5%: 2.0 points
- If 1.5% < R <= 4.0%: 1.0 point
- If R > 4.0%: e^{-0.5 *(R - 4.0)}
Survival Multiplier (M_S):
Tension requires the chasing team to survive near the end. If they are bowled out in the 15th over, the margin might look small on paper, but the game was dead early.
- If they batted all 20 overs (Wickets < 10): 1.0
- If they were bowled out (W = 10): Let B_{fall} be the balls remaining when the 10th wicket fell. Multiplier = e^{-0.1 * B_{fall}}
Defending Match Score = S_R * M_S
3. Additive Bonuses (The "Drama" Factors)
Add these flat points to the final Match Score to reward extreme scenarios. Because they are additive and positive, they only increase the score.
- The Clutch Bonus: If the Required Run Rate at the start of the 17th over (ball 16.1) is > 12 and the chasing team still wins: +1.0 point.
- The Super Over: If the match ends in a tie (before the Super Over): +3.0 points automatically.
- The "Miracle Defense" Bonus (B_M): This evaluates the state of the game exactly at the end of the 15th over (when balls remaining = 30) for matches where the Defending Team wins.
Trigger Conditions (Both must be true at ball 15.0):
- Required Run Rate (RRR) <= 6.0
- Wickets Fallen <=6(They have >= 4 wickets in hand)
The Bonus Applied:
- If conditions are met: +2.0 points added directly to the final match score.
4. Stage Multiplier (Context)
Finally, multiply the total match score by the significance of the game.
- League Stage: * 1.0
- Qualifier / Eliminator: * 1.5
- Final: * 2.0
If you guys have suggestions regarding the scoring criteria or any other metrics, mention them. I am planning to make an ML model which calculates the ball by ball probability of winning (like the google one), so that we can check the absolute shift and variance, I think that procedure would be a better measure, but let's see.