What happened with Glenn Youngkin’s 'playbook' to win blue states?
Glenn Youngkin won Virginia back in 2021, which was considered very impressive, since Biden won it by 10 points just the year before. His campaign was masterfully executed, walking a careful tightrope between distancing himself from Trump post January 6th, while still welcoming his endorsement and keeping him close enough to placate the Republican base. In terms of appearance, Youngkin was soft-spoken, presented as a moderate and sort of had the vibes of a relatable suburban dad with his distinct red fleece vest. Basically, he didn’t instill the visceral fear response many Virginians harbored for other Republicans.
After his win, Youngkin was considered a rising star. Political analysts noted a “formula” for winning as a Republican in blue states: Calmly focus on local issues and the economy while letting your opponent make a fool out of themselves by constantly trying to nationalize the race and invoking the orange man at every turn. I can't recall an election since that utilized this playbook, not even his own lieutenant governor! (I'll get to that later)
Virginia Governors are famously ineligible from running for consecutive terms, but I can’t help but think that if they could, Youngkin would have made the 2025 race significantly closer. Youngkin is a smart guy: If he had his own re-election in mind, I cannot imagine that he would vigorously campaign for Trump like he did in our timeline, or emphasize polarizing culture war issues to the extent that he did. And most Virginians still approve of Youngkin!
Despite all of this, Youngkin may have very well still lost, through no fault of his own. Voters blamed the ongoing shutdown on the incompetence of national Republicans, all the while Trump himself was subject to massive disapproval by Virginians. Of course, Winsome Earle-Sears certainly didn’t help herself by ignoring the things that got her predecessor elected. Instead of keeping her distance from Trump, she actively sought his endorsement, making her seem desperate since he all but ignored her, in addition to alienating large portions of the electorate. As a result, the ensuing Democrat landslide and coattails down-ballot basically ensured the death of the Virginia GOP.
Does Glenn Youngkin have any kind of political future? He is a long-shot candidate for the White House in 2028 (potential VP/cabinet pick perhaps?) and he has already declined a run for the U.S. Senate in 2026. And most importantly, why was his successful strategy for winning never adopted by other Republican candidates?