u/FUCKYOUGUNGHO

▲ 16 r/GME

Real talk, thoughts on the eBay derivatives component?

Ryan Cohen said on an interview (TBPN?) that the 5% ownership in eBay consists of stock and derivatives. He followed that up with "some stock, mostly derivatives".

Did that stand out to anyone else? The first thought is that derivatives have been utilized many times by different people/companies to quickly cross certain thresholds, particularly reporting.

I can't stop thinking about the Porsche + VW hostile takeover playbook as well as how the false narrative peddling has suddenly seemed to explode again after years of relative dormancy and reek of desperation.

Not interested in any other opinions about unrelated topics or propaganda, thoughts on the potential use of the derivatives and how that would play out?

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u/FUCKYOUGUNGHO — 1 day ago
▲ 33 r/GME

Why eBay? It's quite simple, really.

I've seen some asking why eBay? I can see how that may be an actual question vs just the nonstop, unfounded and easily disproven bot FUD about dilution and gaming compensation so I will give a quick, light overview.

Instead of stalking about the incompetence of the eBay board and misaligned incentives, or bots hating on RC to foster contempt, let's talk about this great company.

The secondary market has a massive TAM and is underutilized, often due to high shipping overheads.

It's a market that Amazon also does not have absolute dominance in, and in fact, completely neglects. Just like how RC created <doggycompany> and took a (small) slice of the market (pets) from Amazon, he's now going for round 2 with a much much larger market.

Just like RC said, eCommerce is his competency. Not only that, he has the connections, the hard-earned learnings you can only get from failures, and everything else from creating <doggycompany> as his first go around. Now we add in GameStop with its collectibles and physical presence for taking in and verifying goods, you unlock many new growth levers ((as well as significant margins) previously not accessible to eBay.

Quick recap for any investors not up to date with recent progress on the GameStop front:

  • PowerPacks (for more info on that look at DD from others) have significant margins built in on the fully digital flow of opening the packs, putting them in the vault, and reselling them. More clearly: FAT margins.
  • An infinite number of resales can occur, all without any shipping costs which are traditionally massive overheads.
  • GameStop gets margin from every single pack opening, and every single sale.
  • The ease and convenience greatly increases the transactions, on which GameStop gets a slice.
  • This same concept can be applied to quite literally any good or merchandise, with the caveat that cards are much more valuable and take much less physical space than other merch and makes more sense to not need to take physical ownership of.
  • The retail footprint allows shipping costs to be either eliminated or significantly reduced both on the consumer and GameStop ends.
  • For the trading cards, there is no lack of supply despite the more frequent transactions, due to the "recycling" incentives built into the system.

Blockchain or not, tokenization or not, I don't see much talk about the fact that this is, in essence, a whole new category which can be applied to ANY AND ALL COLLECTIBLES on the aforementioned FAT margins. With an extra 100 million customers thanks to eBay.

eBay has 2 significant problems that are impossible to solve as they currently exist: large amounts of fraud between buyers and sellers which is well documented, as well as massive shipping overheads, twice on each transaction.

GameStop solves both of these:

  • The physical presence allows for authentication and verification, which will cut down on the most obvious/blatant fraud of packing a completely different item than was advertised. Fraud will never be solved, but this puts a huge dent in it, increasing consumer confidence, and in turn, profits.
  • The eliminated shipping costs for sellers also increase the TAM of the secondary market as many items did not previously make sense to sell after shipping costs. These items can now transact and find fair market pricing, increasing their values and overall to the margins eBay receives.

So anyone who tries to peddle that there are no synergies and it makes no sense is plain and flat out wrong (and likely has an ulterior motive *cough*). The synergies are plenty, the profit potential and margin increase is significant, even beyond the most obvious ones.

The nice part is there is hardly a better suitor for eBay than GameStop, hence few others can make enough sense of purchasing eBay to make it worth their time, aside from preventing GameStop from taking it.

Common arguments/counterpoints and perceived risks:

  • $20B TD debt. Assuming a ballpark 5.5% corporate interest rate, annual carry is $1.1B. eBay spits out more than that, and GameStop leadership has already said large costs cuts are planned in the first 12 months. Debt carry likely drops by ~$300M by year 2, and faster as less cash flow goes to interest.
  • Debt pay down. GameStop leadership has already said aggressive debt pay down is the priority. Cost cuts
  • Dividends. I believe this will be the first thing to go, probably within 1st quarter post acquisition. That capital will go towards aggressive debt pay down.
  • Reduced revenue from cost cuts. This should be expected to some degree. Obviously leadership isn't going to kill the golden goose, but cuts will invariably cause a short term revenue drop. Many growth levers to be pulled will dampen the impact and increase margins.
  • <thebigshortguy> exit shortly after purchasing millions of dollars in shares. <thebigshortguy> is a value investor, he built his whole net worth and acquired his fund customers doing value investing. $20B in debt doesn't align with that methodology, no matter how brief, so he's out. Maybe one day he'll buy back, I don't care and neither should you. Your capital, you decide.

RC and GameStop leadership bringing GameStop from losing hundreds of millions a year to positive cashflow is not simply a talking point, it is key to the prospects and expectations of this acquisition. A successful and dare I say accretive acquisition of eBay involves 3 major things:

  • Costs reduction
  • Margin expansion
  • Debt reduction (a necessary but previously non-existent pain)

All 3 have been done, successfully despite much hate and pushback from the mass media, and massive short selling, over the last 5 years.

Is this largely speculative? Sure, but the lego blocks are all there and the gains are obvious. This same leadership also has a proven track record of executing the exact same playbook on the GME turnaround. Also much of what I've covered isn't wild speculation, they're either facts or recent statements from GME/RC with a small sprinkle of forward looking projection. Certainly an infinitely more likely outcome than the narratives being painted by malicious actors.

Both GameStop and eBay investors have a LOT to gain and little to lose and would greatly benefit from a successful acquisition.

Ultimately I believe the result of this will be many billions a year in cashflow for the combined entity, in the order of multiples of the current cashflow, likely in as early as 3 years.

I am voting YES with my x,xxx,xxx shares purchased in Nov 2020 and encourage any other eBay and GameStop investors to do the same. Godspeed and god bless, let's get on with it!

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u/FUCKYOUGUNGHO — 1 day ago

It's quite simple, really.

In the deep of the night, when my wife is with her boyfriend and I'm all alone, I ask myself:

If I was so upset about what I believe RC is about to do but hasn't yet done, what ever shall I do?

I would sell ASAP like Burry and move on to the FOTM like MU or SNDK and get rekt buying late on an exponential move like the idiot I am.

I most certainly would not be:

  • Rage posting here and attacking other investors, being super rude while NOT selling my stake
  • Even here at all, especially if I claim to have "suffered for years" and am "done with it"
  • Telling other people who disagree with me that they too, should sell their stake, while attacking them

I also would not be:

  • Holding onto my stake to vote NO, while claiming GME holders are a "cult" or an "echo chamber" because if so, obviously it would result in YES
  • Suddenly imagining that the leadership team I trusted my capital with for 5 years, with 0 compensation, ALL suddenly want to dilute themselves and burn their capital to make the CEO rich off some sham play.
  • Suddenly imagining that just because the CEO is a billionaire that he would be so bored to spend 5 years with 0 comp on this company when he could have just retired
  • Suddenly imagining that just because the CEO wants to acquire another company with obvious complimentary potential, he would want to kill the goodwill of the most supportive and loyal investor base in the public markets
  • Suddenly imagining that the CEO who put significant capital and 5 years of his "billionaire" life wants to throw all that away and leave a legacy of being scum over another couple billion that he doesn't need
  • Suddenly imagining that the CEO who also previously took a market segment from Amazon and created a billion dollar company is an incompetent idiot
  • Suddenly imagining that directors of this company, as fiduciaries with significant legal responsibilities to shareholders, want to suddenly screw them over for a pittance, inviting huge lawsuits till the end of time
  • Spending days and hours of my time, writing elaborate "DD" essays in all sorts of GME hate subs and all over Reddit about a company I have 0 stake in and hate. Why would I expose myself to more of it?
  • Making completely unfounded claims that have no basis in reality, spinning all sorts of ridiculous crap, and disseminating it as facts

Meanwhile, if I held it for 5 years, through multiple stock issuances, why would I be scared now?

I would be:

  • Holding because I claimed to be diamond hands
  • Holding because the same leadership that I entrusted my capital with for 5 years is the same leadership running it now
  • Voting YES because the same leadership that I entrusted my capital with for 5 years believes that is the best path forward and has asked for my support as such
  • Voting YES because the rude and angry haters want me to vote NO
  • Voting YES because eBay and GameStop have obvious synergies and is not a random target
  • Voting YES because the other side's claims and motive are weak to say the least
  • Voting YES because the last time I saw outsiders suddenly "care" so much for GME shareholders, good things happened contrary to their claims
  • Buying more, with more conviction because clearly a lot of "people" are suddenly very interested in me selling.

To anyone with nefarious intentions:

I'm sorry, you don't even pass a basic smell test and only make it more clear the right path to take.

If you don't like the way things are, by all means, save your capital by selling to us (if you had any to begin with), and reallocate your capital elsewhere. No harm, no foul.

GME shareholders who have been around this long are people with integrity, conviction, intelligence, and see the world for what it could be, not what the lowest common denomination wants to make it.

There has never been a more supportive and loyal investor base in all of history, and there likely will never be another. The potential of that investor base is tremendous, more than any amount of bots or shills, or even billionaires and I'm all for it.

All in all? Hmm, tough choice. I guess I'll buy more and vote YES with all those shares as well.

https://i.redd.it/608zzbpahx0h1.gif

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u/FUCKYOUGUNGHO — 1 day ago
▲ 67 r/GME

GME acquisition of Gamestop requires ~$28B, not $55.5B. Don't miss the basic facts in this FUDfest.

EDIT: ACQUISITION OF EBAY*

EDIT2: Keep at it bots, y'all are doing great!!! Brownie points incoming!

One minute starting from this timestamp is all you need: https://www.youtube.com/live/94-M9YGnqQs?si=V67EjC8XLYIViRbW&t=5658

Look, I don't post on this sub, I have no need to. We've all seen the clowns that have been working around the clock trying to FUD less convicted shareholders. I, personally, am unphased.

Yet, I'm seeing seemingly well meaning people get caught up in the gaslighting and missing the most basic point of this proposed acquisition:

"Half cash, half stock", refers to half eBay stock, not GME stock. The proposal is that we pay out eBay shareholders at a ~40% premium half their stake so they can take chips off the table to reallocate if they wish, and roll the remaining 50% forward into the new, combined entity, again at a premium, and with a tax advantage.

And so, $28B in cash is all that is needed for this proposal. I know math is hard but let's attempt some with the one collective braincell we can muster: $20B commitment from TD, $9B in cash holdings, how in the world is GameStop possibly going to finance that without significant dilution?! Surely having $29B makes it impossible to pay $28B? Hmm, don't know, beats me.

Now, a love letter to my favourite company:

Prior to 2020, I stalked this stock for 3 years in the $3-$4 range, waiting for signs of a breakout/turnaround to buy-in. The more I looked into the fundamentals the more I was convinced this was a homerun. I bought in at November 2020 at $12.54 pre-split a total of over 6 figures in share count.

3 months later, GME hit $500 pre-market and brokers shutoff the buy button, something I never imagined could happen. I sold none, but my broker force sold in the $200s. I quickly bought back more, much lower.

Here I am, 5.5 years later, trading little peanuts on the side with nearly all my net worth in GME, with only one goal: to acquire more shares of GameStop (and now warrants). I would love another 5 years to stack more if the hedgies allow. Post split I have well into the 7 figures in share count and a nice stack of warrants. My single braincell is off, as it should be, and it will remain so.

It has been a pleasure having Ryan Cohen onboard, of all options available to him, choosing to spend 5 years of his life and personal capital with 0 compensation, turning around GameStop.

Never before in my investment thesis did I contemplate the possibility of multiple brokers disabling the buy button while keeping the sell button on. Never did I imagine short sellers so weak and pathetic they couldn't win a simple game with huge amounts of capital, that they would need to flip the table and commit the most egregious and blatant crime in the capital markets in all of human history. After all, trading is a tough game. Don't you think?

And yet because of that, GameStop has the most loyal, committed, and convicted investors, with a fierce sense of proud ownership and justice, devoting their hard earned capital to a great company, with a great mission. I invite anyone to show me a better investor base in the public markets.

Goodwill is a tremendous thing, even within companies. It's why the taxman also taxes goodwill. Despite GameStop's measly $10B market cap, dare I say the goodwill it has far exceeds that.

It is inconceivable that anyone, no matter how idiotic, could even have the thought that someone like Ryan Cohen would alienate his whole investor base, and his own board and capital, by pulling something completely silly and unnecessary, like diluting shareholders significantly, without being aligned with creating shareholder value.

Ryan Cohen has gone toe-to-toe against Amazon once, carving out a segment and creating billions in shareholder value. Now he's going for round two, for a much larger TAM through eBay, while securing a first mover advantage in a whole new segment of the collectibles market (IYKYK), and yet the bots seem to "think" he's going to burn all his investors?

The guy with $5B net worth, who could have already retired, chooses to work for free, to steal another billion, or two from investors? So that he can retire with $7B? $5B wasn't enough but $7B is definitely an end goal, please.

Short-sighted and dumb people play finite games, smart people play infinite games. Imagine a billionaire working 5 years for free, in the face of all the FUD and jest, only to scam a few measly billions when he has the skill and capital to do it without. Why scam a few billion, when you have the backing of a generational investor base never seen before in human history, that you could create value in the hundreds of billions at a minimum, if not trillions? Never mind the fact that officers of a company have a fiduciary duty to its shareholders. Big word, I know, fiduciary.

Previous authorized shares were issued at multiples of the then market price, increasing enterprise value during brief periods of relative "overvaluation".

Also, Bur-ry? He's a value investor. Value investors don't like debt on the books at any cost. A value investor believes debt is real, potential is intangible and moot. End of story. The game is now manifestly different, and it's not his game, so he's out. No harm done.

Anyway, look. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, you have your own money, I got mine. But for the sake of yourself, your family, and your wife's boyfriend's future descendants calling you a retard, don't trade your winning ticket for shit.

If you really want to, please sell, do it faster than it takes for you to climax. I can't wait to slurp your 5 shares all up along with these hedgie tears.

This post was not written with any help from AI, I don't even know what AI stands for or how to use it. All I know is GameStop.

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u/FUCKYOUGUNGHO — 3 days ago