Let's talk about what the data actually shows.
For almost three months now, USCIS has not approved any I-130 consular case filed after February 25, 2025, zero forward progress.
For context, in January-February 2026, USCIS was processing at record speed, median down to 12 months, advancing about 2 months of cases per month. Then on February 16th, it stopped cold. Not slowed down. Stopped.
Notably, AOS cases continue to progress normally. This appears to be specific to consular processing.
So the real question: has USCIS made an internal decision to stop processing I-130 consular cases entirely? If so, is this permanent or is there an actual plan to resume?
The few approvals still being reported appear to be older cases completing secondary screening rather than USCIS making progress on newer filings.
Several theories have been discussed in the community:
- SCOPS to FOD realignment
- Enhanced vetting and CCD checks (per the March 30th USCIS announcement)
- DHS shutdown affecting inter-agency background checks
- H-1B season reallocation of adjudicators
- A deliberate pause after processing reached historic lows of 12 months, well below the published 17.5-month window
Would appreciate any insight from those with knowledge of USCIS operations. Many families are waiting without any information or visibility into what's happening.