An excellent piece between Covid Grandpa (John Campbell) and Dr Clare Craig on ANDV discussing the realities of transmission, incubation and other matters.
A must watch with a focus on Dr Craig’s professional input.
As a disclaimer, vaccines are extremely important methods of disease control. John Campbell has received criticism for his focus on vaccinations and is correctly rebuffed in this video by Dr Craig.
So, I’ve finally decided to make my own post to open up a discussion on what an actual valuable use of our time would be and I thought some people would find it helpful to see where my current focuses are.
As it stands, to my view, the French scenario is going to give us a good picture of what transmission looks like in an almost every day setting I.e somewhat normal airline travel. They have a cohort of repatriates who were on the same flight as a symptomatic individual. I cannot find any detail on what protocols were taken during the flight but I expect that masks at a minimum were provided.
France is taking a great approach to this and retaining all repatriates in mandatory isolation / monitoring indefinitely until they know more, so we’re likely to get the cleanest data / picture from the updates there.
I, personally, would start to pay this more attention if the other passengers start to become sick. I am not predicting that will be the case, but it is one of my thresholds for seeing how this may pan out. So in other words, this is what should be monitored the most.
My other musings are in relation to the disembarked passengers before an emergency was declared. Depending on what happens with the French, we can have a good case study to apply there especially the Johannesburg incident where the widow flew while symptomatic and not practicing any containment protocols like masks or social distancing. While we wait for the France scenario to play out, any Gen 3 infections that crop up would be another of my thresholds. However, monitoring is likely not where it needs to be so it’d likely take another death to confirm its presence in population centres, so it’s not exactly something to rely upon.
Overall, I’m at a 2-3, but my assessments to my own personal health and safety are still 0 and will remain so until there are confirmed clusters in multiple countries.
Footnote: no you do not need to cancel your travel arrangements, no you do not need to hoard PPE or sanitary products, no you do not need to make adjustments to your daily life as it stands. I just have a passing interest in epidemiology as it is an interesting topic. I am not here out of active concern or worry.