Lots of consolidation across the board - Compass bought Anywhere, Rocket bought Redfin. Real just bought REMAX for $880M. Three legacy franchise brands sold to tech-first acquirers in 18 months, and zero franchise brokerages have acquired a tech-first platform anywhere in this cycle. The direction of capital is one-way.
The REMAX number is what I keep staring at. 7x EBITDA. For context, software-enabled platforms in adjacent verticals routinely change hands at 12-18x. Even traditional services businesses with durable margin profiles get 9x or 10x. The market just priced the most recognizable franchise brand in residential real estate as a depleting asset, not a brand with strategic optionality. That is the actual headline.
I have been running an independent brokerage for 17 years and built EffectiveAgents during the 2009 housing crisis. The franchise era is finished. The next decade of brokerage gets built by small founder-led shops with technical co-founders who own their data, code, and customer relationships, not by the next round of regional managers fighting over logo refreshes.
Wrote up the full analysis here: https://www.effectiveagents.com/resources/real-acquires-remax-the-franchise-brokerage-era-just-ended . Open to pushback from the franchise side, especially from anyone closer to the Real or REMAX side of the deal.
- Kevin Stuteville