The Lead:

Last week was defined by a massive administrative rebalancing in the United States and a deepening war in global economic policy. The launch of the CAPE refund system represents a historic victory for US importers against executive overreach, yet this liquidity injection was immediately offset by the threat of a new 50% tariff on China over its alleged ties to Iran. This geopolitical tension was reflected in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which characterized the global economy as living in the shadow of war, with trade fragmentation and rising defense spending threatening to erase recent productivity gains. While the US focuses on reciprocity through its Section 122 surcharge, the EU and China are aggressively building alternative corridors, the former through tech deals with South Korea and the latter through tariff-free access for Africa, effectively creating a world of competing trade fortresses.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: general market rates are holding at approximately $2,600 – $2,700 per FEU. However, special discounted rates are available for high-volume shippers, ranging between $2,100 and $2,200. Rates have remained largely stagnant compared to the previous week, though they represent a significant increase of $300 – $400 since the beginning of the month.

CEA to USEC: Rates are not explicitly quoted in dollar amounts, the lane is facing more severe operational challenges than the West Coast. Carriers are struggling to maintain the current $2,700 sticker price during this off-peak period, suggesting potential downward pressure on rates in the coming weeks despite aggressive capacity management.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,070 from China to US West Coast and $3,150 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

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Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Increased Booking Rolls: There is a notable rise in "rolled" bookings, where cargo is pushed to later vessels due to the reduced number of active sailings.
• Volatile Sailing Schedules: Schedules have become highly unreliable; in one instance, a scheduled sailing for the final week of April disappeared from carrier websites entirely, with the next available slot pushed to early May.
• Shipper "Wait-and-See" Tactics: Many importers are withholding regular shipments, betting that current rate levels are unsustainable and will drop by May.
• Downsized Urgent Cargo: For necessary shipments, customers are opting for smaller, more frequent batches to mitigate the high costs of both ocean and air freight.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the first half of May suggests a period of continued friction between carrier capacity management and low market demand. Carriers are expected to continue their strategy of limited capacity to defend the current rate floor, but this will likely be challenged by the ongoing off-peak slump.

As sailings are pushed into the first week of May, shippers should prepare for rate adjustments at the start of the new month. If volume does not pick up significantly, the gap between special discounted rates and official sticker prices may widen, eventually forcing a correction in general market rates. Shippers currently withholding cargo are likely to re-enter the market in early May, which could provide the volume necessary to stabilize these higher levels or, conversely, lead to further booking congestion if blank sailings persist.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Global Trade Policy Reacts Swiftly to Iran War Disruptions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-16/trade-policies-introduced-to-counter-iran-war-fallout 

New York Times: Trump Administration Takes Steps to Refund $166 Billion in Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/trump-administration-tariff-refunds.html 

Financial Times: Are global trade imbalances just ‘one really big surplus’?
https://www.ft.com/content/30e59f44-647e-496d-a4fa-ac3595dcb6f2 

Newsweek: Iran Issues New Threat to Further Destabilize Global Trade via Red Sea
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-new-threat-destabilize-global-trade-red-sea-11833027 

CNN: The tariff refund process is finally kicking off
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/space-tightens-on-china-us-routes-despite-weak-underlying-volume-tfx-update-wk-april-13-2026

The Lead:

During this week, the global trade landscape transitioned into a period of aggressive industrial restructuring. US formalized its 2026 agenda, signaling that it will use 100% pharmaceutical tariffs and 50% metal duties as leverage to force domestic onshoring and global "reciprocity." This move has effectively ended the era of global pharmaceutical exemptions and forced the European Union into an emergency expansion mode. By fast-tracking deals with Mercosur and Australia, the EU is attempting to build a resilient middle trade bloc that can survive the inflationary pressures of high energy costs and the U.S. surcharge. However, with the WTO's growth forecast falling to 1.9% and the U.S. trade deficit failing to narrow despite these measures, the week concluded with rising concerns that the world is entering a period of permanent "smarter trade" at a significantly higher cost to the consumer.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has seen a period of rate stabilization following adjustments earlier in the month. As of mid-April 2026, current rates are being extended through the end of the month. Current market rates from China/East Asia (CEA) are as follows:

CEA to USWC: Rates are currently holding between $2,600 and $2,700 per container.

CEA to USEC: Rates are trending higher, ranging from $3,600 to $3,700 per container.

While these represent the standard Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates, special or blended rates have emerged from specific origins, particularly Southern China and Southeast Asia. These blended rates, often originating from fixed agent contracts, can bring costs down to approximately $2,100 - $2,200 for the West Coast, depending on the carrier and volume ratios.

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Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Carrier-Driven Scarcity: Carriers are aggressively utilizing blank sailings to artificially tighten space and prevent rates from sliding. This has resulted in some bookings from the beginning of the month being rolled to later vessels.
• Blended Rate Ratios: To maintain volumes in a market with weak organic demand, agents are mixing low-cost fixed contract rates with FAK rates. For example, a carrier may require one container at full FAK price for every four containers shipped at a discounted contract rate.
• Air Freight Spillover: Due to the volatility and "messed up" state of ocean transit, importers requiring speed are pivoting to air freight, driving those rates up to $7.00 - $8.00+ per kilo.

Looking Ahead:

The market appears to be entering a phase of forced stability through the end of April. While demand remains soft, the "aggressive" blank sailing strategy employed by carriers suggests they are committed to defending current price floors rather than allowing a slide back to previous lows.

Expect the blended rate phenomenon to be a temporary fixture. As risk profiles increase and margins tighten, forwarders will likely have to move back toward market averages to sustain operations. For shippers, the immediate outlook suggests less price volatility but continued equipment and space challenges as carriers continue to pull ships out of circulation to manage capacity.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Global Trade Customers Ask Container Lines to Keep Digital Transition Moving
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/global-goods-trade-and-digitization?srnd=homepage-europe 

New York Post: US Court of International Trade considers challenge to Trump’s 10% global tariffs
https://nypost.com/2026/04/10/us-news/us-court-of-international-trade-considers-challenge-to-trumps-10-global-tariffs/ 

CNBC: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China as report suggests plans for arms shipment to Iran
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-threatens-50percent-tariffs-on-china-as-report-suggests-plans-for-arms-shipment-to-iran.html 

WSJ: US trade court challenges Trump's basis for 10% global tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-trade-court-weighs-legality-trump-10-global-tariff-2026-04-10/ 

Reuters: Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/italys-surprise-rise-exports-us-masks-deep-fragility-tariffs-2026-04-14/ 

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When the Trump administration began its tariff campaign in 2025, some of the loudest critics focused on the consequences for Midwestern farmers or for border states. A year in, the impact of tariffs has become clearer, and some research suggests no state has emerged completely unscathed.

Early last year, the Trump administration established one of the most sweeping tariff regimes in the country’s history, including a 10% duty across the board and country and commodity-specific penalties, in some cases as high as 50%. These tariffs were widely expected to have a biting effect on the economy. But while some observers assumed the immediate pain would be confined to agricultural producers or states heavily reliant on international supply chains, the shock proved far more widespread.

Trump’s tariffs effectively revealed 50 different trade vulnerabilities across the country, each dictated by a state’s own production and consumption patterns, according to a paper published last week by researchers at Ohio State University and Cornell University. By the end of 2025, even states that had never depended on buying goods from abroad were feeling tariff tremors in their own way.

Read more: https://fortune.com/2026/04/14/how-tariffs-dealt-economic-blow-in-all-50-states/

Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-pivot-to-weekly-rate-updates-amid-global-fuel-volatility-tfx-update-wk-april-6-2026

The Lead:

The beginning of April 2026 saw the US extend its national security tariff umbrella to the healthcare sector, imposing a massive 100% duty on foreign pharmaceuticals to decouple medical supply chains. This aggressive unilateralism stands in stark opposition to the EU's recent diplomatic successes, such as the inevitable ratification of the Mercosur deal, which seeks to secure critical minerals through cooperation rather than coercion. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization's latest figures highlight a shifting global guard, with the UAE's rise to a top-10 exporter occurring just as the organization slashes global growth forecasts to 1.9% amidst a surging energy crisis. Collectively, these events suggest that while the US is doubling down on protectionist fortress economics, other major powers are aggressively forming new, non-US aligned trade corridors to mitigate the inflationary impact of $110 oil and high Western tariffs.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

Ocean freight rates from China to the U.S. remain highly volatile week-over-week, with this week’s increases driven primarily by fuel surcharges rather than base rate adjustments.

CEA to USWC: Rates are holding relatively steady at the base level, but all-in pricing has increased to approximately $2,700 per FEU, up from roughly $2,400–$2,500 last week due to a newly introduced ~$300 fuel surcharge per container.

CEA to USEC: Similarly, USEC pricing is experiencing incremental increases driven by fuel costs, with all-in rates trending upward in line with USWC dynamics. 

Notably, carriers have shifted from bi-weekly rate releases to weekly updates, reflecting a highly volatile environment. While base ocean freight rates have remained relatively constant, the overall cost to shippers has increased due to the implementation of significant surcharges.

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Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Carrier Profitability Strategies: Airlines and ocean carriers are aggressively managing space to maximize profits. This includes the continued use of blank sailings to ensure services remain sustainable and profitable.
• Stagnant Volume: Despite the increase in costs, actual freight volume remains slow with no significant spikes in demand observed.
• Air Freight Spillover: Air freight rates remain high at $8–$9 per kilo, with severe space constraints as airlines hold back capacity for the highest bidders, adding pressure to overall logistics budgets.

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the remainder of April remains unstable. The industry is moving away from predictable bi-weekly rate extensions; it is anticipated that the second half of the month will continue to be broken into smaller, weekly pricing portions.

As long as fuel price volatility persists, shippers should not expect a simplification of the rate structure. The market is currently in a "wait and see" posture, with no signs of the current upward pressure slowing down for at least the next week. Importers should prepare for continued "headwinds" where pricing remains high despite sluggish volume.

In the News:

Financial Times: The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.ft.com/content/2c895663-16d5-4b7a-8c9b-45204c362c84  

The Washington Post: The backward logic of pharmaceutical tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/ 

BBC: A year on: Four ways Trump's tariffs have changed the global economy
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79j1rd92ypo 

WSJ: How Trump Rewrote the Rules of Global Trade in One Year
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-trump-rewrote-the-rules-of-global-trade-in-one-year-e37332fd 

Reuters: Bourbon demand is down and tariffs aren't helping. But distillers keep building.
https://www.reuters.com/business/bourbon-demand-is-down-tariffs-arent-helping-distillers-keep-building-2026-04-07/ 

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Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/china-us-freight-rates-dip-as-carriers-battle-for-sparse-cargo-tfx-update-wk-march-31-2026

The Lead:

The end of March 2026 signaled a definitive splintering of the global trade system. The failure of the 14th World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference to extend the moratorium on ecommerce duties marks the end of an era of digital tax-free trade, effectively green-lighting digital borders. While the US continues to manage its trade through a 15% flat surcharge and targeted green-tech investigations, China has responded with its own sophisticated lawfare, investigating US barriers to its clean-energy exports. This week confirmed that the "consensus-based" model of the WTO is being replaced by a "multi-speed" trade world: one where a core group of 66 nations attempts to maintain digital rules, while major powers like the U.S. and China settle disputes through unilateral tariffs and domestic industrial investigations.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The freight market is experiencing a period of high volatility as carriers attempt to balance dwindling volumes against rising operational costs..

CEA to USWC: Rates have dipped slightly, now averaging between $1,800 and $1,900 per FEU.

CEA to USEC: Rates for the East Coast are currently holding between $2,800 and $2,900 per FEU.

In a departure from the traditional bi-weekly or monthly rate cycles, carriers are currently only releasing rates on a one-week basis. This ultra-short-term approach allows carriers to remain agile, either slightly lowering rates or extending previous ones to capture what little volume is available in the market.

Air freight, meanwhile, is breaking the $8.00/kilogram threshold, up from last week's $6-7.00/kilo and up from $4.00 in mid February.

While rates have dipped slightly week-to-week, importers, according to our TrueFreight Index, can still find rates as low as $1,650 China to US West Coast and $2,450 China to US East Coast. Talk to your current freight forwarder for options.

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Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

The current rate environment is being shaped by a tug-of-war between low demand and geopolitical instability

• Carrier Desperation for Volume: After attempting to jack up prices in late March, carriers saw volume vanish, forcing them to pivot and lower rates slightly to attract any available cargo.
• Short-Term Rate Validity: By only committing to seven-day rate windows, carriers are protecting themselves against sudden spikes in fuel or further drops in demand.
• Fuel Price Volatility: Unlike Air Freight, which feels the impact of oil prices almost immediately, Ocean Freight is seeing a delayed reaction due to existing bunker fuel stocks.

Looking Ahead:

The industry is entering a high-stakes waiting game centered on mid-April. Carriers have already announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge (EFS), tentatively scheduled to roll out around April 11th or 12th. However, there is significant internal hesitation among carriers regarding the implementation of this surcharge.

Carriers are currently trying to have it both ways, lowering base rates now to fill ships while keeping the EFS as a defensive go-ahead if fuel costs become untenable. If cargo volumes do not recover by the second week of April, carriers may be forced to further delay the EFS to avoid permanently turning off the few shippers still active in the market. Expect continued weekly rate updates as the industry monitors if and when factory activity returns to normal levels.

In the News:

Bloomberg: A Winner in Early Trump Tariffs, Vietnam Thrives in Trade War 2.0
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-vietnam-trump-tariffs-supply-chain/ 

Reuters: US vows to seek WTO alternatives after Cameroon meeting fails to renew e-commerce moratorium
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/ 

BBC: European Parliament gives conditional approval to EU-US trade deal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c33l4e6vdrvo 

WSJ: China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/china-initiates-probes-into-u-s-trade-practices-f02a8951 

Reuters: US menus change as Trump's tariffs hit wine prices
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-menus-change-trumps-tariffs-hit-wine-prices-2026-03-30/ 

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