u/DrownFox

As many commenters pointed out under a previous post - yes, I got some things wrong:
- The event lasts for 14 days, not 20 (I blame poor wording from Embark in the patch notes)
- If you claim a golden ticket, the tile gets converted BACK to the item tile, which can be converted to the golden ticket tile again, which can give you a golden ticket once again
- There is actually a significant difference between using the golden ticket the moment you get it, and saving all golden tickets for after you run out of regular tickets (difference shown on pic)

Here I post an updated version with all the variables adjusted. So, to recap: to get a 95.7185% chance of getting all items from the wheel, you need to use 33 tickets, meaning that you can skip only three days of the event before noticeably impacting your odds of getting everything.

I hope this info was useful (or at least somewhat interesting) to you!
If someone spots any other errors or discrepancies - pls let me know in the comments :)

UPDATE: I re-ran the simulations and included the "use your golden tickets when their amount matches the amount of unowned items", and the odds for the old Wheel of Love event (the one with 4 picket parts). Plus I added a counter that shows how many unowned items on average each data point had before the simulations ran out of tickets (the Y:YYi counter). Posted the new graph in the comments: https://www.reddit.com/r/thefinals/comments/1t9hfat/comment/ol5bfwo/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

UPDATE: the math in this post is INCORRECT, I re-did everything and addressed the issues you guys found in the newer post, please check it out: https://www.reddit.com/r/thefinals/comments/1t9hfat/i_recalculated_the_odds_of_the_scales_of_fortune/

I ran 360 million Monte Carlo simulations in total, to see the true odds of getting all of the items from the wheel (and how many spins that would take).

The event rules are simple:
- 60 available spins, assuming that you complete all 3 contracts every day during the event, which lasts 20 days in total (starting May 7th, ending May 27th)
- 20 item slots on the wheel
- If you land on a duplicate item, that slot gets replaced with a golden ticket slot
- If you land on a golden ticket slot, it awards you a golden ticket, which gives you a special spin that guarantees an item that you don't own yet
- If you land on a golden ticket slot that has already been used - you do not get anything
The simulation assumes that you use the golden ticket spin as soon as you get it

So, looking at the numbers I got from the simulation, you need to use about 42 regular spin tickets in order to have a 98.3237% chance to get all of the items, meaning that you can safely skip 6 days of the event and still have a really good chance of getting the grand prize. Nobody is guaranteed to get it - it's still technically possible to land on the exact same tile every single time and get nothing from it, but the odds are astronomically low (only about 30 simulations out of the 10 million managed to NOT get all of the items).

This is a big improvement over the previous wheel iterations I ran the simulations for. Thanks, Embark!