u/DooDooDuterte

Reds (14-8) head to the Trop to face the Rays (12-9) for a three-game set starting tonight.

A few things to watch:

Sal Stewart's at bats continue to be must-see, but his contact quality has been quieter lately. Whether the production holds or cools off could be the story of the week, but all of his underlying metrics and plate approach remain outstanding.

Elly De La Cruz is hitting the ball harder than at any point in his career. Six homers already. Strikeouts will always be there, but he's electric as always.

Tyler Stephenson is hitting .183 but might be the most interesting at-bat on the roster. He's crushing the ball and refusing to chase. The hits should be coming.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is hitting .057 and has been called the unluckiest hitter in baseball. His contact says he should be doing much better, but the recent trend is worth watching. Expect plenty of chatter about his lack of production, because Reds fans are growing impatient with his despite his elite glove skills.

On the mound, Chase Burns has been solid but the walks are up. Brandon Williamson is quietly rebuilding his pitch arsenal, adding a plus slider and a sinker.

For Tampa, Yandy Diaz is locked in (.933 OPS) and Jonny DeLuca has been swinging a hot bat. But their bullpen has some soft spots the Reds can exploit. Jesse Scholtens starts the opener with a 0.00 ERA that his underlying numbers don't support. Junior Caminero remains an exciting young power bat, so we'll be watching to see if he lives up to the bar he set in 2025. Rays closer Bryan Baker blew a save against the Pirates last weekend, so let see if he can blow another this week.

Reds fans will spot two familiar faces in Tampa's dugout: Nick Martinez and Jake Fraley.

Full report here: https://exitvelo.us/heat-check/CIN_heat_check.html

The Reds travel to Minneapolis for a three-game set starting Thursday. Cincinnati's lineup has been carried by Sal Stewart (1.094 OPS, 7 HR), the rookie who has been hitting the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, and Elly De La Cruz, who has 6 homers and a barrel rate well above last year. Both bats are legit, backed by strong contact quality.

On the mound, Brandon Williamson gets the ball Thursday in what amounts to a homecoming. He grew up in Minnesota and will pitch in front of family for the first time as a big leaguer. He's been shaky since returning from injury, but threw a combined shutout against the Marlins, so the arm is in there. Andrew Abbott goes Friday, though he hasn't looked like last year's All-Star yet, with his strikeout rate dropping by nearly half. Brady Singer wraps it up Saturday.

The Twins counter with Joe Ryan on Thursday, who might be the best pitcher in the AL right now (2.55 expected ERA, elite chase rates). Taj Bradley, acquired from Tampa Bay this offseason, goes Friday with a 1.25 ERA and mid-to-upper-90s heat. FanGraphs just ran a feature calling it a "star turn." Saturday against Bailey Ober (5.49 ERA, lost velocity) is the window for the Reds offense.

Minnesota's lineup runs through Ryan Jeffers (.874 OPS, strong barrel rate) and Byron Buxton, who can change a game with one swing even when the average doesn't reflect it. Austin Martin has been the surprise of the early season with a .500 OBP, and Tristan Gray has stepped up since Royce Lewis went down with a knee sprain. Lewis won't be available for this series.

On the Reds side, watch for Rece Hinds, just recalled after Noelvi Marte was optioned. Hinds brings elite raw power but a 50% strikeout rate and a 42% chase rate. The book on him is simple: breaking stuff below the zone, fastball in on the hands. Watch early in his at-bats to see if he's laying off the garbage or swinging through it. Also worth watching: Ke'Bryan Hayes, who has a .201 OPS but a .342 contact quality score, meaning the luck has been historically bad and a turnaround could come any day.

TJ Friedl has zero extra-base hits in 78 plate appearances, and the outfield as a whole remains the biggest concern on the roster. Tyler Stephenson has been hitting the ball harder than anyone on the team at 95.4 mph, so keep an eye on him when he's in the lineup.

Should be a fun series. Full Heat Check pages for both teams (with stat breakdowns and scouting notes) are linked below if you want to dig deeper.