I'm creating damage benchmarks for D&D 5E (2024) to use later to do some homebrewing for my group. Before comparing classes, I want to validate the math and assumptions that I will use for modeling daily damage by level among the core classes.
(1) using binomial probability for limited-use resources like Divine Smite across a full adventuring day,
(2) my hit calculation: 60% hit rate + 5% crit rate against AC = 14 + 0.33×CR
(3) spell damage scaling based on 2024 DMG guidelines with "bad/okay/good" save failure rates of 80%/60%/30%.
If you have stats knowledge, I would appreciate any commentary on if I'm using the math right. I have some basics in stats, but nothing beyond that.
Full PDF linked if you want details, but even a quick "that looks right/wrong" on the math approach would be huge. Thanks!
Link to PDF with Methodology (not Classes): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MlfkqGzchkyFqwepuZSfNVK_OpuA58rU/view?usp=sharing
Prior Post: https://www.reddit.com/r/3d6/comments/1swc3uh/modeling_martial_damage_in_dd_5e_to_help_update/