As per my analysis, if we consider factors like SIR (electoral roll revision) and overall voting patterns together, the total voting turnout appears to be similar to the previous election, though there seems to be a variation of around 10%.
Looking at the last election’s vote share:
TMC: approximately 48%
BJP: approximately 38%
Based on this, if around 25–30 seats see a shift where TMC loses ground and BJP gains, the initial estimate could be:
TMC: around 180 seats
BJP: around 110 seats
Where is the Real Twist?
The key factor lies in the 57 seats from the last election where the margin of victory was very narrow.
These seats can significantly influence the outcome this time. Even a small swing could benefit BJP.
So realistically, the range becomes:
👉 TMC: 130 – 180 seats
👉 BJP: 130 – 180 seats
This makes the contest completely open and highly competitive.
The Role of Women Voters
One major factor this time is the increase in women voter turnout.
Women voters could play a decisive role in shaping the final result.
Because of this, the election is not a 49–51 situation anymore — it is closer to a true 50–50 contest.
What’s at Stake for Both Parties?
If BJP Wins:
It would be a major setback for TMC
As a regional party, recovering from such a loss could be difficult
It would significantly impact both leadership and party structure
If TMC Wins:
It would be a major setback for BJP
Despite deploying top-level leadership and full campaign machinery, failure to win would raise serious questions
It could make BJP’s future prospects in West Bengal more challenging
Conclusion
This election is not just about forming a government — it is a crucial test for both parties and their leadership.
That is why the entire country is watching closely.
👉 Now, everything comes down to result day.
Divyanshu Tiwari
Political Analyst | Law Student | Aspiring Public Policy Expert