win rate/tl;dr
23-27% - Luuk(black)
18-22% - Phoebe(white)
17-21% - Sigrika(blue)
15-19% - Denia(green)
14-20% - Hiyuki(red)
13-17% - Cartethyia(yellow)
- despite everyone having abilities, the race's core mechanic is when the cubes are stacking which is really strong and creates win conditions for even losing characters

Luuk - 23-27% win rate

ability: triggering the thruster pushes this cube forward by 2 extra tiles. triggering the blocker knocks this cube back by 1 extra tile.

Pros: He is a burst king
*not enough information is out at this time, it is unclear if Luuk's ability activates if he is in the middle/top of a stack while being carried during another characters turn and they activate a thruster/blocker*

• despite his ability stating that he moves +2 when landing on a thruster, further look at the SEA race shows that Luuk actually moves +3 when he lands on a thruster, effectively making him burst forward a total of 4 tiles(thruster+ability) in addition to him moving according to his dice roll beforehand.
• There are 4 thrusters on the track making the probability of him landing on one very likely and only having 2 blockers on the race tracks means he's not as likely to land on those.
• likely to have "instant race ending scenarios" and swing from the middle or back of the pack to a solid winning position
• likely to get ahead and avoid stacking "competitions" early on in the game

Cons:

• everyone starts on the first tile and there is a thruster on the third tile of the race. Starting on tile 1 instead of a “zero” starting position slightly weakens Luuk because it reduces how consistently he can reach the first thruster tile early and gain an uncontested lead. Since the first thruster is on tile 3, starting on tile 1 means players are already closer together near that tile, which increases the chances that multiple players reach it around the same time and begin stacking earlier. Luuk’s strength comes from using thrusters to create explosive movement and snowball ahead of everyone else, so when the start of the race is more compressed and crowded, he has fewer opportunities to benefit from early solo momentum.
• blockers affect Luuk more severely
• being in the lead isnt everything this anniversary, the presence of Abbowser this time around reduces solo burst dominance.
• he is constantly vulnerable to Sigrika
• as a burst lead, he becomes less consistent the longer the race drags on and not being able to rely on the thrusters as everyone catches up

Phoebe - 18-22% win rate

ability: here is a 50% chance to advance an extra tile

Pros: Extremely stable and consistent

• +0.5 to all her dice rolls every round because her ability is always active and not dependant on chance or activation requirement
• stronger in long and chaotic races where consistency matter more than burst
• benefits from stack carrying and repeated turns and therefore Peebs rarely performs badly

Cons:

• hard to steal wins in final stack collapse moments
• an ability with 100% up time is great but it can be hard to pull ahead when in the back of the pack
• Peebs may have to rely on others making mistakes or randomness to win due to lack of burst potential

Sigrika - 17-21% win rate

ability: up to 2 cubes directly ahead of this cube at the the start of the turn advance 1 fewer tiles this turn. this effect does not freeze cubes in place or make them go backwards. (essentially targeting the next 2 cubes who are ranked higher than her at the start of the round before anyone has gone)

Pros: Insane control over the other racers

• can reduce movement of up to 2 people in the lead in front of her including those stacked on top of her.
• this makes Sigrika's ability absolutely strong in compressed Abbowser stacks.
• punishes burst characters like Denia and Luuk and indirectly affects who reaches the finish line first.

Cons:

• she does not increase her own movement directly
• needs others to be ahead for her ability to matter thereby making her weak when theres too many players ahead of her because of her control limit of 2 and when she's in the lead with no one to pull back
• relies on timing and positioning to win rather than raw speed.
• she cannot reduce another persons dice roll from 1 > 0. She can only affect the roll if its a 2 or a 3 making her ability obsolete if they were going to roll a 1 anyways.

Denia - 15-19% win rate

ability: if the number rolled matches the previous roll, this cube advances 2 extra tiles

Pros: High variance gambler

• powerful scaling if repeated rolls occur
• like Luuk, she is capable of very high movement in lucky streaks for early "race ending scenarios"
• capable of dominating the race instantly AND if the race drags on since repeated turns lead to more lucky outcomes
• benefits more compared to others when stacking becomes chaotic from Abbowser since stack carries can amplify extra movemnt from her ability.

Cons:

• highly inconsistent because she depends on repeated roll conditions
• still vulnerable to Abboswer's and Sigrika's disruption of stable positioning
• can waste turns with no bonus activations
• she performs worse than Sigrika and Phoebe in several of the simulations because winning isnt about advancing fast but also how consistently a character can influence the race's outcome amongst the stacking chaos, Abboswer, and random turn order. Phoebe's ability is highly consistent and Sigrika has consistent influence over the race every single round.

Hiyuki - 14-20% win rate

ability: encountering Abbowser causes this cube to advance by 1 extra tile each turn afterward. (encountering meaning she gets pull back)

Pros: Dangerous snowball effect
*not enough information is out at this time, it is unclear if Hiyuki's ability is stackable multiple times*

• I gave her permanent scaling since the race didnt specify if it couldnt stack or be repeated like Cartethyia's ability. If her ability can be re-activated multiple times then she is a monster by becoming stronger overtime with permanent movement bonuses
• strong synergy with Abboswer encounters
• becomes dangerous in long games due to accumulated bonuses.
• can transition from a weak early game to a strong late game threat

Cons:

• requires interaction from Abbowser to activate her ability at all
• very weak early game because her ability has no immediate impact
• slow ramp-up compared to burst characters
• she can lose before scaling becomes relevant

Cartethyia - 13-17% win rate

ability: if ranked last after finishing her action, there is a 60% chance to advance 2 extra tiles in all remaining turns. this can only be triggered once each match. (the last part basically means it cant activate again when she gets in last place again but she can still advance 2 tiles multiples times for the remainder of the race if she still procs it)

Pros: Comeback lottery engine

• built-in comeback mechanic when in last place
• 60% is a high activation chance to gain +2 movement comeback loops
• Cartwheel benefits like crazy from chaotic stack reshuffling to pop her ability activation
• her ability is what saved her last year and outcompeting nearly everyone because the Cubie Derby isnt just about winning the race, its also about not getting eliminated. Cartewheel was in nearly every semifinal because her ability saved her an ungodly amount of times from being in last place.
• can stabilize from losing positions multiple times per race.

Cons:

• completely reliant on being in last place after her movement
• no control over the turn order
• 60% is high but still susceptable to repeated failed activations
• no stacking synergy
• she doesnt want to be in last place too consistently

Closing remarks

Despite the statistics, it's okay to vote for whoever you want. Every character's performance falls within 5-10% of each other which makes the Cubie Derbie a close race regardless.

The most broken mechanic in the game is NOT abilities, its STACKING. being carried is effectively free movement and the randomized turn order creates multiple snowball effects. Landing on someone else is almost always stronger than moving alone. Abbowser's presence this anniversary drastically compresses race spacing between characters. without Abbowser, Luuk and potentially Denia would dominate harder but it also creates a situation where newer characters since last year's anniversary can be built slower like Sigrika and and Hiyki and still dominate due to how Abbowser disproportionately affects them.

edit 1: grammar
edit 2: stated their abilities below their names