u/DeprivedSheep — reddlx

I've focused on the Nuggets perspective on this trade as I believe they would be the ones to reach out and initiate talks, also since this is a decently long post already. I would appreciate a Memphis perspective on this trade.

Today's Problem:

The Nuggets have a difficult time improving the roster over the next few years. Many of their starters are beyond their growth years (Jokic, Murray, AG, Cam Johnson), and their best young player is about to hit free agency (Peyton Watson).
Over the last three playoff runs (2024-2026), Jamal Murray has averaged 21.7/4.7/5.4 on 40.9% from the field, while providing a weak spot for teams to attack on the perimeter. In the playoffs, Murray has struggled to generate 1 on 1 separation from the POA defenders of the Thunder and Timberwolves, and it's likely that that will continue to be an issue as the Spurs emerge as another consistent title threat over the next few years.
The Nuggets still don't have an answer for how they run an offense when Jokic is off the floor, Jonas Valanciunas was an attempt to address this but he was unplayable in the playoffs and against contending teams in the regular season.

A Measured Gamble:

Enter Ja Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. The upside here is that Ja Morant over the next 3 years will cost less than Jamal Murray, while still having the athleticism to generate advantages against High-Level POA Defenders. With (a healthy) Jokic as a pick-n-roll partner, his lack of high volume three point shooting is less impactful, especially with as many consistent 3 point shooters that Denver has as kick out options (this year they had AG at 38.9%, Peyton Watson at 41.1%, Cam Johnson at 43%, THJ at 40.7%, Jokic at 38%).
Additionally, Ja has demonstrated himself to be a high-level playmaker on his own, alleviating the constant burden on Jokic to create advantages for his team. This also allows for high-level playmaking when Jokic goes to the bench, compared to currently when it becomes largely Murray, AG, and Cam Johnson isos.
Finally, Scotty Pippen Jr has shown himself to be a high level backup PG, improving the quality of the bench unit offensively while also providing another solid defender to the rotation.

The Risk

Ja Morant's availability throughout a regular season and playoffs, as well as his ability to develop a consistent 3 point shot. His FT% is among the highest in the league (89.7% this year) and has consistently gone up over the course of his career (77.6% - 89.7%), but his 3 point shooting has yet to take the leap (31.1% Career, 23.5% this year). The gamble here is that his availability and 3 point shooting are problems that can and will be solved in the future, compared to Murray's dimnishing athleticism and inability to generate advantages against POA defenders.
There is also a small risk that Scotty Pippen Jr. doesn't recover to the same level of productivity he showed in the 2024-25 regular season and playoffs, but his contract is a minimum so it is trivial to ride out.

TLDR:

Murray has shown an inability to produce against high-level POA defenders in the playoffs that every contender will have while also providing a target on the perimeter on defense
Ja Morant has more upside available if he recovers his original form, and costs less over the same period of time, allowing the nuggets the flexibility to re-sign their young players and make moves around the edges
Scotty Pippen Jr has demonstrated the ability to be a high-level backup PG and costs the league minimum for the next 2 years
I have no clue if either team would be attaching assets but wouldn't be surprised if that would be needed to make this trade make more sense, the core of the player swap is what I wanted to discuss with everyone here