Set completion math: Is Pick 2 a total trap? Premier vs. Quick vs. Pick 2
Hey everyone,
I’m currently grinding through the latest set and trying to figure out the most efficient way to hit rare completion. I’ve been looking at the numbers, and while Pick 2 (the 4-player pods) seems like it has the highest potential return on paper, the "feel" of it is making me hesitate. I’m currently sitting at about a 53% win rate in Premier, but in Pick 2, I’m struggling a bit more—closer to a 48% win rate over my last few attempts.
I’m curious if anyone has actually done the math on the Pick 2 grind lately. On one hand, the rewards look great if you can string a few wins together, but that 2-loss limit is terrifying. It feels like you’re one bad opening hand or a single mana screw away from a total bust, especially compared to the cushion you get in Premier. At a sub-50% win rate in that specific format, is it a total waste of gems, or does the smaller pod size and the way cards wheel make it better for snagging rares? I’ve thought about just retreating to Quick Draft since it's "safe," but the bots have been so stingy with passing rares lately that it feels like it takes forever.
For those of you who actually play the Pick 2 queues, how are you approaching the draft itself? Since it’s only a 4-man pod and you’re seeing the same packs wheel constantly, it feels like the strategy has to shift. I’ve found that you really have to pay attention to the wheel, you can almost map out the entire table’s colors by the second pack. I’m also finding that hate-drafting actually matters for once, since you’re almost guaranteed to run into the person you passed that bomb to. Are you guys finding that it's better to just force a strong synergy early, or are you staying flexible even with fewer people at the table? I’d love to hear some tips on navigating the 4-man pods and whether the variance is worth it for a "mid" player like me. Thanks!