I'm a data scientist that also loves fantasy football, and last year I built a prospect model (you can read more about it here). I also posted my final top-36 prospect rankings here. I won't have time to write up all my model scores this year, so instead I'm going to just do one consolidated post with my rankings for this year, as well as some reflections from last year. I'll start with the reflections, so skip to the end if you're just interested in this year's rankings!
For a quick TL;DR on my process: as a data scientist, I lean much more towards a numbers-driven approach. I have my own model, and I also support JJ Zachiariason by buying his prospect guide every year, so the ZAP model gets factored into how I rank prospects as well. I also generally trust both Matt Harmon and Matt Waldman's work, and how they feel about prospects will influence my rankings.
Wins from Last Year
- Jaxson Dart - One of the biggest pieces of feedback I got last year was that people were surprised not necessarily with how high I had Dart ranked (#11 for SF), but that I had him at the end of a large tier including Hampton, Judkins, Henderson, Tet, Egbuka, etc. I generally will rank QBs fairly aggressively for SF dynasty rookie drafts, simply because they tend to hold their value well for at least a year even if they end up being misses at the NFL level. Plus, Dart had rushing upside. That made him a high-upside (if his passing could translate to the NFL level as well as his rushing), low-risk (due to QBs holding value well in dynasty) bet that really paid off.
- Bhayshul Tuten and Cam Skattebo in the same tier as RJ Harvey, and a tier ahead of Kaleb Johnson - Tuten and Skattebo were both guys the analytics liked, while Harvey and Kaleb Johnson had some significant red flags. I trusted the models on these guys over landing spots, and it paid off. Even though Tuten didn't get a lot of volume in year 1, he showed flashes and looks primed for more work in year 2. As a result his dynasty value has increased relative to last year. Skattebo was a popular sleeper pick last year, so I'm certainly not the only one who had an aggressive ranking for him, but he was seen as part of a crowded backfield with Tracy and Singletary, and proved himself to be the best of the bunch before an unfortunate injury. Harvey was an older prospect that my model saw a limited ceiling for, and my model also saw Kaleb Johnson as a clear step below all of Tuten, Skat, and Harvey.
Losses from Last Year
- Travis Hunter - my model liked him, and he was a Reception Perception darling. As a result, I had him ranked very aggressively (#2 in SF). Unfortunately, I didn't take into account the two-way ability enough. I actually think he's a buy in dynasty right now since he did show flashes as a WR as a rookie and I think the market is over-reacting to the latest news (even if he starts the season as a part-time WR and full-time CB, that is by no means set in stone and could change with injuries or just another season of experience), but there's no doubt he has lost a lot of value and is an L for me right now. There isn't much I think I should change about my process based on this though since he's such a unique player.
- Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren - I had them ranked lower than consensus simply due to them being TEs. I generally fade TE in rookie drafts historically for a couple reasons: 1. they historically have taken time to break out, although this has obviously been changing in the last few years, and 2. unless you hit on a player that becomes a top 3-4 TE, they really won't be much of a difference maker for your team. The production of the position just flattens out a lot after the first few guys usually. However, because TEs have been breaking out sooner, and the league is shifting towards more TE usage, I do think there will start being more value to TEs beyond just the top few guys, and I need to adjust to fade the position a little less in rookie drafts moving forward.
2026 Rookie Rankings (SF)
I was going to rank my top 36, but there were a few more guys in the same tier to I included them as well, which is why I ended up ranking 39 players here.
- Tier 1 - Jeremiyah Love, RB
- Tier 2 - Jordyn Tyson, WR
- Tier 2 - Carnell Tate, WR
- Tier 2 - Fernando Mendoza, QB
- Tier 3 - Makai Lemon, WR
- Tier 3 - KC Concepcion, WR
- Tier 3 - Jadarian Price, RB
- Tier 3 - Kenyon Sadiq, TE
- Tier 4 - Omar Cooper Jr., WR
- Tier 4 - Ty Simpson, QB
- Tier 5 - Denzel Boston, WR
- Tier 5 - De'Zhaun Stribling, WR
- Tier 5 - Eli Stowers, TE
- Tier 5 - Jonah Coleman, RB
- Tier 5 - Antonio Williams, WR
- Tier 5 - Germie Bernard, WR
- Tier 5 - Chris Bell, WR
- Tier 6 - Nick Singleton, RB
- Tier 6 - Elijah Sarratt, WR
- Tier 6 - Oscar Delp, TE
- Tier 6 - Eli Raridon, TE
- Tier 6 - Carson Beck, QB
- Tier 6 - Drew Allar, QB
- Tier 7 - Chris Brazzell, WR
- Tier 7 - Ted Hurst, WR
- Tier 7 - Kaelon Black, RB
- Tier 7 - Max Klare, TE
- Tier 7 - Emmett Johnson, RB
- Tier 7 - Ja'Kobi Lane, WR
- Tier 7 - Kaytron Allen, RB
- Tier 7 - Zachariah Branch, WR
- Tier 7 - Skyler Bell, WR
- Tier 7 - Malachi Fields, WR
- Tier 8 - Mike Washington, RB
- Tier 8 - Cole Payton, QB
- Tier 8 - Taylen Green, QB
- Tier 8 - Justin Joly, TE
- Tier 8 - Brenan Thompson, WR
- Tier 8 - Adam Randall, RB
To share some general thoughts on this class, there is no doubt that the mid-late 1st round and early 2nd round of rookie drafts is weaker than most years. Notably the guys I have ranked in tiers 4 and 5 (ranks 9 through 17) have weaker prospect scores than those same ranks last year (guys I had in the 9-17 range last year included Luther Burden, Dart, Loveland, Warren, Harvey, Tuten, and Skattebo - definitely better prospects than the guys listed 9-17 this year).
However, this class has quite a bit of depth at WR and TE, which helps to balance things out again by the time you get to the mid-late 2nd round. By around picks 18-24, the prospect scores become close again. From the mid-late 2nd round through the 3rd round, this year is not any weaker than last year. I think there is potential value this year to trading back, or trading future late picks for additional late picks in this draft since based on the sentiment a lot of people are entirely out on this class as a whole.