u/Current-Age3629

Six months into capacity planning for a 2-3 MW expansion and I keep hitting the same wall. Every Tier 1 operator (Equinix, Digital Realty, QTS, CyrusOne) says nothing until late 2027 at earliest, and even that is not a firm commitment. Colocation advisors confirm the same picture and point toward secondary markets.

JLL Q1 2026 has primary vacancy at 1.4% with 81.5% of new supply preleased before construction started. That supply is going to hyperscalers and large neoclouds. It is not coming to operators at our scale regardless of what we are willing to pay or what our credit looks like.

Secondary markets (Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix, Chicago) have options but older vintage. Power density is typically 2-4 kW per rack on the legacy equipment, not enough for modern AI workloads. Retrofitting is possible but the cost estimates I have gotten make the economics worse than just accepting the primary market wait.

Has anyone found a path that actually worked for 1-5 MW in the past 12 months? Either a colo operator that is not on the obvious list, or a self build approach that did not turn into a 30 month nightmare on electrical procurement?

Moody's LTCT framework and the 1-10 MW colocation market - has anyone navigated this?

JLL Q1 2026 shows 1.4% vacancy in primary US markets with 81.5% of new supply preleased. The numbers are well-covered. Less discussed is why the 1-10 MW segment specifically keeps getting non-answers from major colo operators.

The structural issue is Moody's Long Term Credit Tenancy framework. Two requirements before a data center financing qualifies for investment-grade debt treatment: the anchor tenant needs an IG credit rating, and the lease must run at least 3 years past loan maturity. On a 7-10 year construction loan closing today, that means a lease through 2033 minimum.

Most midmarket operators do not sign 12 year leases. They expect to renegotiate or reassess on a 3-5 year cycle. They are not a credit risk in the conventional sense. They fail the commitment-duration threshold. And because insurance and pension capital now funds most large-scale construction with 15-20 year duration requirements, failing LTCT means structural exclusion from most new supply regardless of creditworthiness or willingness to pay.

Has anyone dealt with this directly? Curious whether operators are getting transparent explanations of why they are not getting allocations, or just being told there is nothing available.

Sources: JLL Q1 2026, Moody's LTCT Framework, Data Center Knowledge Q1 2026

Thunder Compute benchmarked H100 pricing across providers. The spread is $1.38/hr on the low end to $12.29/hr at major hyperscalers. B200s start at $2.25/hr from neo-cloud.

Every provider uses the same NVIDIA silicon. The cost stack breaks down roughly as 35-45% silicon, 40-50% facility and power, 10-15% operations. The entire price gap comes from what sits under the GPU: construction cost, power rate, and cooling efficiency.

Anyone here operating GPU infrastructure at scale? What does your actual cost breakdown look like?