Hey everyone,

Looking at the current macro data for Bitcoin, the asset is presenting a critical structural setup as it pushes above the $80,000 mark. Based on the regression and Time Weighted Average Price models over at Crypto Weeklies, here is a breakdown of where the market stands compared to the 2018 and 2022 bear cycles.

From a technical standpoint, the price action is currently sitting meaningfully above the 20-week simple moving average at $76K and the 21-week exponential moving average at $78K. In previous bear markets, counter-trend rallies above the 20-week SMA often failed to hold. Holding the $78K level as support is the immediate confirmation needed to maintain bullish directionality.

Adding to the context, we have rallied right back to the mathematically derived fair value curve. If the market faces a rejection here, the one-standard deviation support to the downside sits around $59K. Furthermore, the TWAP model places Bitcoin at Risk Level 7. Historically, particularly in mid-2018, the asset spent a massive amount of time chopping sideways at this exact risk level before capitulating.

We also have to consider the "Sell in May" seasonality. Historically, May introduces high volatility for BTC in a bear market, with negative ROI accelerating between early May and mid-June. However, the data shows Bitcoin is currently only sitting at a -11% yearly ROI, vastly outperforming the drops we saw by this time in 2018 and 2022. The diminished volatility to both the upside and downside is highly noticeable.

If broader market weakness does take hold over the summer, the 200-week SMA is currently sitting at $61K, which has historically been the final floor for major capitulations.

For those tracking macro accumulation, the data suggests a measured approach. Bullish sentiment is returning, but the Risk Level 7 consolidation and historical May seasonality mean downside risk management is still necessary.

(Disclaimer: NFA. All proprietary models and charts referenced are from cryptoweeklies.com).

Bitcoin Time-Weighted Average Price Analysis

Website: cryptoweeklies.com

Hey everyone. I ran the latest Bitcoin data through our macro forecasting tools to evaluate the recent price action against the Time-Weighted Average Price and historical moving averages.

With the price currently trading at a steep premium to its historical baseline, the data suggests caution. Here is what the models are showing:

Core Metric Overview

• Gravity of Time: The Time-Weighted Average Price model indicates Bitcoin is currently trading at a massive premium compared to where the asset has spent the entirety of its trading history.
• Historical Context: In previous bear markets, prolonged periods at Risk Level Seven often preceded sharper drops toward deeper accumulation zones at levels five and below.
• Support Targets: While short-term structure remains constructive, mathematical models suggest a regression to lower risk tiers could test downside targets before a true cycle bottom forms.

NFA. The mathematics point toward a highly elevated asset that may need to cool off before offering optimal macro entries, so we are closely monitoring the data for signs of a shift.

Macro Data: Crypto Social Sentiment Plummets

Website: cryptoweeklies.com

Hello everyone. I ran the latest data through our macro forecasting tools to evaluate the overall social sentiment risk and long-term market attention metrics.

With social interest cooling off significantly, the data suggests we are entering a lower hype phase of the market cycle. Here is what the models are showing:

Core Metric Overview

• Attention Deficit: Long-term market attention is faltering. Monthly views for crypto content have continued to form lower highs since late last year, signaling a broad decrease in retail interest and social volume.
• Risk Levels: Despite the drop in social hype—which can sometimes signal accumulation opportunities—the composite risk scores for major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain elevated relative to their historical fair value models.
• Altcoin Cooldown: The lack of sustained attention is particularly noticeable in the broader altcoin market, where interest has steadily declined following the major upward expansions seen in the previous year.

NFA. The mathematics and social data point toward a heavily cooled-off market, so we are closely monitoring these metrics to identify when macro accumulation zones might reopen.

Macro Data: Bitcoin Tests Moving Average Resistance

Website: cryptoweeklies.com

Hey everyone. I ran the latest data through our macro forecasting tools to evaluate the recent Bitcoin correction against the twenty-week and twenty-one-week moving averages.

With the price testing critical historical resistance bands, the data suggests cautious navigation. Here is what the models are showing:

Core Metric Overview

• Structural Resistance: BTC is attempting to hold the line after a rejection near eighty thousand. Historically, testing these moving averages frequently results in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows during macro cooldowns.
• Regression Bounds: The mathematically derived fair value model shows that the price has not spent any time in deep undervaluation territory yet, contributing to the currently elevated risk score.
• Machine Learning Forecast: Time-series forecasting projects a non-panic floor near sixty-one thousand over a six-month horizon, with panic scenarios pushing the floor down closer to fifty-two thousand.

NFA. The mathematics point toward a critical test in the short term, so we are closely watching to see if Bitcoin breaks out or faces further rejection.

Macro Data: Moving Average Resistance and AI Bottom Forecasts

Website: cryptoweeklies.com

Hey everyone. I ran the latest MicroStrategy (MSTR) data through our macro forecasting tools to evaluate the recent price action against the 20-week and 21-week moving averages, alongside shifting social sentiment.

With the price testing critical historical resistance bands, the data suggests cautious navigation. Here is what the models are showing:

Core Metric Overview

• Structural Resistance: MSTR is attempting to break above the 21-week exponential moving average ($164) after bouncing from the 20-week simple moving average ($146). Historically, testing these lines frequently results in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows during macro cooldowns.
• Regression Bounds: The mathematically derived fair value sits near $450. However, the regression model's lower band points to potential deep accumulation near $136 if resistance holds and the macro downtrend continues.
• Machine Learning Forecast: Time-series forecasting projects a non-panic floor near $101 over a 6-month bearish horizon, which aligns with the potential for MSTR to carve out a double bottom similar to February's price action.

NFA. The mathematics point toward a critical test in the short term, so we are closely watching to see if MSTR breaks out or faces rejection at these moving averages.

Macro Data: Bitcoin and Ethereum Risk Triad Divergence

Website: cryptoweeklies.com

Hey everyone. I ran the latest data through our risk triad models to evaluate the current top and bottom detection signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The data shows a massive divergence between the two assets, with overall composite risks remaining highly elevated. Here is what the models are showing:

Core Metric Overview

• Risk Triad Mechanics: The model uses the 20-week SMA alongside a z-score of historical tops and bottoms to identify leading macro signals.
• Asset Divergence: Currently, Bitcoin risk is significantly higher than Ethereum risk. Historically, a lower relative risk for ETH compared to BTC only occurs during very specific macro transitions, typically near the end of a bear cycle.
• Composite Averages: Despite short-term bottom signals flashing earlier in the year, the averaged-out composite scores place both assets outside of safe accumulation territory.

NFA. The math points to a highly precarious zone for both assets, so we are watching to see if this divergence resolves through a macro correction or a structural shift.