This pic is from an IG story I was sent by my cousin back in December of Kacey and her bf at a restaurant in Tokyo after she finished her tour in Australia (previously posted here back then, but reposting now since Mexico Honey is more than likely about him). I hid the restaurant owner's face this time since last time there was confusion about which guy was her bf. She had previously been soft launching him on IG. I remember seeing on his social media (has since been deleted) after I was sent this that he lives in the same area of Mexico that Kacey has been going to and works as a tour guide/captain for a charter boat company. Based on his photos, he's probably mid- to late-40s and more of a backwards hat wearing surfer type (with a big beer belly) than a cowboy hat type (probably swapped out hat styles for the song to fit the album), but the surfer thing explains the "we're gonna ride this wave til it breaks" line in Mexico Honey. I thought maybe they had broken up, but in interviews when asked if she's dating, she just deflects and says the dry spell has been broken and she has everything she needs (since this era is supposed to be about being single, acknowledging a relationship probably doesn't fit the branding for the album). She also still follows his sisters on IG (her sister, Kelly, does as well) which might be weird if they had broken up. I saw a clip on IG from an interview where she was asked what her favorite song on the album was and she said "I really love Mexico Honey so much....it hits me in this place in my heart." She even has a clip of it pinned in the bio section of her IG profile.
While talking about the album in interviews, she's said that her dry spell lasted about a year and a half and that Mexico Honey is about ending the dry spell. I think she started posting from Mexico around this time last year which would be about a year and a half after she and Cole broke up, and started soft launching this guy in June, so it's more than likely the song is about him. In a few interviews, she's mentioned that she primarily lives in Mexico now, bought a house in an area where the "desert meets the jungle" (it's a beach town about an hour north of Puerto Vallarta), and has found a beautiful life there. She also said in an interview that she's been thinking about having kids lately. Sounds like she has moved down there with plans of eventually starting a family with him.
If she has additional songs already recorded and new ones to record in Spanish, maybe the next album or deluxe version of MoN will be a Latin vibes/Spanish language Golden Hour? Unless the relationship doesn't go well, then probably more like Deeper Well.