u/Creative_soja

My question is about small unexpected/unintended events that (potentially) changed the course of Indian history. This question derives from the Chaos Theory, which is often applied to the field of mathematics but could be useful to understand history too.

The Chaos Theory describes systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. And tiny differences in initial conditions could lead huge differences in the outcome. For example, a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause hurricanes in the US (hence the name Butterfly Effect).

Are there such examples where seemingly small events; or tiny, unrelated invention led to historical trajectories, which would have been unlikely without those events or inventions.

I have listed some examples that could fit the criteria but looking for more. I am more interested in contextual events that are rather exogenous, unexpected, or unintended.

1. Hemu getting hit in the eye by a random arrow in the second battle of Panipat and losing the battle.

Here, it is believed that the arrow was not targeted and accidentally hit him, therefore, it is an exogenous event.

2. Rainfall rendering gunpowder ineffective because Nawab's army forgot to bring tarpaulin in the Battle of Plassey in 1757. This battle led to the formal establishment of EIC and the British empire.

While there were other factors, rainfall, an exogenous factor, did play an important role.

3. Accidental discovery of quinine, the active ingredient in anti-malarial drug. This was used along with alcohol (hence the origin of word 'gin and tonic'), which saved many British lives and helped them solidify their rule in India.

The invention was exogenous to the British colonialism but did help to solidify it. Without this drug, the British colonialism might have ended lot sooner.

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I understand it is impossible to know what the alternative course might have been, but it is still interesting to learn how such small significant events.

Note to moderators: This is not a hypothetical question. I am asking about historical events that can be considered 'the Butterfly effect' events rather than asking about alternative historical possibilities of those events.