u/ConnectedFarmer

The traditional relationship between a weaker dollar and stronger U.S. agricultural exports is becoming less reliable.

The reason is not FX behavior itself, but structural changes in trade flows:

• China has increasingly pre-allocated soybean demand through forward purchasing and supplier diversification
• Brazil now dominates marginal soybean supply into China, reducing sensitivity to U.S. pricing advantages
• Corn trade is more constrained by policy (quotas) and substitution effects (notably sorghum)
• Logistics and procurement strategy now matter more than spot FX in determining flow direction

In this environment, currency still affects pricing, but it no longer reliably changes volumes. The system is increasingly defined by structural allocation of supply rather than marginal price signals.