Bloom Energy trades at $63 billion on $2 billion in revenue. The market figured out that on-site power cells can get a data center online in 90 days while the grid takes 4-7 years. It was a Simple thesis that led to an enormous re-rating.
But a data center doesn't just need watts. It needs cooling. Cooling is 30-40% of total facility power consumption. Increasingly, date centers try and convert waste heat from power generation into cooling via absorption chillers, to reduce costs. This is where the comparison gets interesting.
Take a 10MW compute data center. Cooling needs roughly 6.67MW assuming compute is 60% of power and cooling is 40 of that 60.
With Capstone: 30.3MW of gas input(33% electrical efficiency). Their C1000S recovers 50% of fuel input as thermal energy, giving 15.2MW thermal. At a COP of 0.7, that's 10.64MW of displaced cooling, or 160% of the cooling load. Zero additional grid draw needed for cooling.
With Bloom: 15.4MW of gas input(65% electrical efficiency). At 36% thermal efficiency, that's 5.5MW thermal. At COP 0.7, that's 3.85MW of displaced cooling. 57.7% of the cooling load. 2.82MW still needs to come from the grid per 10MW of compute.
Grid interconnection queues in the US exceeded 1,500GW in 2025. Half of all planned 2026 data centers are cancelled or delayed due to a pure lack of power. Every MW pulled from the grid for cooling is a MW not used for compute. Bloom perpetuates this problem. Capstone eliminates it.
A few other things worth knowing:
Bloom's fuel cells degrade 5% annually in output. Capstone's air bearing turbine has a single moving part and requires maintenance only every 8,000 operating hours. Capstone is significantly cheaper on upfront capex.
So why hasn't anyone noticed? Capstone went through Chapter 11 in late 2023, got delisted to OTC, and underwent an SEC investigation and financial restatement simultaneously. Most institutions structurally can't own OTC securities. Capital starvation froze their fleet expansion. Goldman's post restructuring preferred equity structure meant every share they issued to raise capital made Goldman's economic interest larger as a percentage of enterprise value. The constraints were real, but they were structural, not fundamental. But things have changed.
Two weeks ago Monarch Alternative Capital deployed $112.5M to fully redeem Goldman's preferred interest and fund fleet expansion. Management personally co-invested in both the November 2025 and March 2026 PIPEs. Monarch committed to filing for a national exchange listing within 12 months. At $6.27, fully diluted market cap is $310M on $110M projected revenue and $16-17M projected EBITDA. 2.8x P/S and 18x EV/EBITDA, priced as a hardware manufacturer while FPP(services) margins expanded from 41% to 88% in two years and rental utilization sits at 98%. Bloom trades at 31x sales. Capstone trades at 2.8x. All whole Capstone is in talks for numerous 100MW orders which would each triple revenues/EBITDA... and they have the capacity for 10 of them.
Full writeup here: https://open.substack.com/pub/phynvesting/p/part-2-the-turbine-the-market-left?r=2u80xc&utm_medium=ios
Would love thoughts or feedback from anyone interested. I'm open for discussion.