How many cycles until NC "forgets" an early ovulation outlier and shrinks my red days?
Hi everyone! I’m hoping someone here has dealt with a similar algorithm quirk and can tell me when to expect things to normalize.
Here is my situation:
- The Outlier (Yellow box): A few months ago (Cycle 16), I had an unusually early ovulation on CD 14 due to a very stressful week.
- The New Normal (Green box): Since then, my ovulation has naturally shifted later. For my past three cycles (Cycles 17, 18, and 19), I’ve ovulated on CD 19, 20, and 21.
- The Problem: Because the algorithm remembers that CD 14 outlier, it’s starting my red days extremely early (around CD 9) just in case. But because my actual ovulation is now happening around CD 19-21, it takes forever to confirm my temperature shift.
The result? A massive, never-ending window of red days.
I know the app relies on statistical variation and is just doing its job to keep me safe, but it is incredibly frustrating! For those of you who have had a single outlier cycle completely wreck your variation:
How long did it take for the algorithm to adjust? Does it eventually "overwrite" or drop that outlier? What is the "magic" number? 6 cycles? If it is helpful: I have been using NC for the past 19 cycles for birth control purposes. I do not have any health issues and I use an Oura ring to track.
I’ve attached a screenshot of my cycle history so you can see the jump. Any insight or shared frustration is welcome! Thank you!
