u/Cogitoergosumus

It feels as though the Dynasty content creator community has a bit of over obsession in regards to data analytics. I'm not saying that they aren't useful or shouldn't inform 60-70% of your decision making, but it feels as though one of the major aspects missing around player profiles is understanding some of the simple dynamics that influence the underlying numbers at the CFB level.

Things like competition level, scheme, supporting cast health and supporting cast talent can and do have a tremendous impact on a players output and therefore perception (Good and Bad). I find the best way to avoid picking up an early first landmine and or looking for value in the later rounds is to try your best to do homework on a given players context to get a full picture to inform your decision making.

To illustrate some examples:

Scheme (Bad result):

Every year we seem to see someone from Josh Heupel's Volunteers get discussed as a decent sleeper asset in the second round and just about every year its a disappointment. What many who don't watch or keep up with CFP may not realize is that the Volunteers play a style of offense that isn't possible at the NFL level. The wide hash markers allow them to employ a scheme called Veer and Shoot (a form of a spread offense), that NFL teams can't with the closer hash marks. While many of his players have been fairly productive in CFB, virtually none of them have been able to translate his high powered offense into NFL production.

Competition Level:

Trey Lance, this one should have been more obvious to people, but the community and the 49ers for that matter should have been putting less stock in his numbers. Of course a Giant wrecking ball of a QB was going to tear up division one football and the consistently most stacked roster in that division.

Supporting Cast (Health and Talent):

Luther Burden's final junior season at Mizzou is a case study for why looking at down years in production profiles can help you net a second round gem. Yes the numbers were bad, but very few analysts at the time were present the full picture of that year. His College QB was I would say an average QB at best, but at the start of 24 season a couple games in he injured his throwing hand which resulted in down the field shots being taken out of the scheme. He further injured himself a couple games into the season and the Mizzou second string QB was out with TJ surgery. In comes the third string QB for several games, whose first chance at glory was three consecutive INT's to Alabama's secondary. The overall point here is, should the expectation be that Luther (a Heisman favorite at the start of the year) be expected to perform similar to his phenomenal 2023 breakout year? Him going after Golden in almost all draft formats was beyond silly.

One of the leagues I'm in with local friends and family has decided, with some trepidation, to try out an in person rookie draft. A couple of the members are worried that it will negatively impact trading. We run a six hour pick schedule (turns off from 10pm-8am), and they think compressing it down to NFL draft time table will make people reluctant to trade.

Curious if others with experience in hosting a draft event/party has generally been a positive experience and any recommendations on setup would be appreciated.