
▲ 25 r/DynastyFF
NFL Draft Capital Hit Rate: Which Rounds to Target for
We are getting close to the NFL Draft, and for dynasty leagues, that means rookie drafts are right around the corner.
The easy answer when it comes to hit rates is simple — early-round NFL Draft capital, especially Round 1, produces the most consistent fantasy success. But there is more to know.
Using data dating back to 2015, there are clear trends that can help guide your decision-making during rookie drafts and give you an edge over your league mates.
Full Breakdown - https://www.dynastynerds.com/analytics/nfl-draft-capital-fantasy-football/
Quarterbacks
| Round | Players Drafted | QB1 | QB2 or Better |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 37 | 59.5% | 75.7% |
| Round 2 | 7 | 14.3% | 28.6% |
| Round 3 | 16 | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Round 4 | 15 | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Round 5 | 15 | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Round 6 | 20 | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Round 7 | 17 | 5.9% | 5.9% |
Ex. 59.5% of the 37 QBs drafted in Round 1 would have at least 1 QB season.
Running Backs
| Round | Players Drafted | RB1 | RB2 or Better | Top 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 15 | 66.7% | 80.0% | 86.7% |
| Round 2 | 24 | 33.3% | 70.8% | 79.2% |
| Round 3 | 32 | 25.0% | 40.6% | 50.0% |
| Round 4 | 48 | 6.3% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Round 5 | 37 | 13.5% | 21.6% | 27.0% |
| Round 6 | 37 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Round 7 | 39 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 10.3% |
Wide Receivers
| Round | Players Drafted | WR1 | WR2 or Better | Top 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 49 | 36.7% | 49.0% | 57.1% |
| Round 2 | 53 | 18.9% | 32.1% | 39.6% |
| Round 3 | 50 | 14.0% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| Round 4 | 48 | 2.1% | 2.1% | 4.2% |
| Round 5 | 45 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.1% |
| Round 6 | 59 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| Round 7 | 53 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
Tight Ends
| Round | Players Drafted | TE1 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Round 1 | 11 | 90.9% | 100.0% |
| Round 2 | 20 | 35.0% | 40.0% |
| Round 3 | 27 | 22.2% | 29.6% |
| Round 4 | 30 | 10.0% | 30.0% |
| Round 5 | 29 | 3.4% | 13.8% |
| Round 6 | 21 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Round 7 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
u/CoachstevenP — 6 hours ago