u/CoachstevenP

NFL Draft Capital Hit Rate: Which Rounds to Target for

NFL Draft Capital Hit Rate: Which Rounds to Target for

We are getting close to the NFL Draft, and for dynasty leagues, that means rookie drafts are right around the corner.

The easy answer when it comes to hit rates is simple — early-round NFL Draft capital, especially Round 1, produces the most consistent fantasy success. But there is more to know.

Using data dating back to 2015, there are clear trends that can help guide your decision-making during rookie drafts and give you an edge over your league mates.

Full Breakdown - https://www.dynastynerds.com/analytics/nfl-draft-capital-fantasy-football/

Quarterbacks

Round Players Drafted QB1 QB2 or Better
Round 1 37 59.5% 75.7%
Round 2 7 14.3% 28.6%
Round 3 16 0.0% 18.8%
Round 4 15 6.7% 13.3%
Round 5 15 6.7% 6.7%
Round 6 20 0.0% 5.0%
Round 7 17 5.9% 5.9%

Ex. 59.5% of the 37 QBs drafted in Round 1 would have at least 1 QB season.

Running Backs

Round Players Drafted RB1 RB2 or Better Top 30
Round 1 15 66.7% 80.0% 86.7%
Round 2 24 33.3% 70.8% 79.2%
Round 3 32 25.0% 40.6% 50.0%
Round 4 48 6.3% 18.8% 31.3%
Round 5 37 13.5% 21.6% 27.0%
Round 6 37 0.0% 0.0% 2.7%
Round 7 39 2.8% 5.1% 10.3%

Wide Receivers

Round Players Drafted WR1 WR2 or Better Top 30
Round 1 49 36.7% 49.0% 57.1%
Round 2 53 18.9% 32.1% 39.6%
Round 3 50 14.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Round 4 48 2.1% 2.1% 4.2%
Round 5 45 6.7% 8.9% 11.1%
Round 6 59 0.0% 0.0% 1.7%
Round 7 53 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

Tight Ends

Round Players Drafted TE1 Top 20
Round 1 11 90.9% 100.0%
Round 2 20 35.0% 40.0%
Round 3 27 22.2% 29.6%
Round 4 30 10.0% 30.0%
Round 5 29 3.4% 13.8%
Round 6 21 0.0% 0.0%
Round 7 22 0.0% 0.0%
u/CoachstevenP — 6 hours ago