Hey r/fiaustralia,
Like many of you, I sat on the sidelines during the massive run up in classic computing/semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD, Apple (AAPL), and the broader tech boom tied to AI and GPUs. Hindsight is 20/20, but it stings watching those gains.
Now I’m thinking ahead: classical computing is hitting serious diminishing returns. (Moore’s Law) the idea that transistor counts on chips roughly double every two years while costs drop has driven decades of exponential growth, but we’re reaching physical limits on how small we can make transistors (now down to ~2-3nm scales). Issues like quantum tunneling, heat dissipation, leakage, and skyrocketing manufacturing costs mean further shrinks are getting insanely expensive and yield diminishing performance gains.
Experts have been calling the “death” or major slowdown of Moore’s Law for years, and it feels like we’re there or very close. We’re bumping up against atomic scale barriers. This could cap the raw power growth we’ve come to expect from traditional chips.
That’s where quantum computing comes in as a potential paradigm shift. Instead of binary bits (0 or 1), quantum bits (qubits) can exist in superposition, enabling massive parallelism for certain problems like optimization, cryptography, molecular simulation, drug discovery, materials science, and complex AI training that classical computers struggle with (or would take impractical time on). It’s not going to replace your laptop anytime soon, but for specific high value commercial/industrial uses, it could be transformative in the coming decades (near term hybrid quantum classical systems, longer term fault tolerant machines). 
I’m looking at this as a very long term speculation play (5–15+ years horizon, high risk/high reward). Quantum is still early-stage with technical hurdles (error correction, scalability, decoherence), but progress is accelerating and big players are investing heavily. The market is projected to grow rapidly.
Leading publicly traded companies to watch:
• IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) Often seen as a top pure play. Uses trapped ion technology (higher fidelity, longer coherence times). Strong partnerships (e.g., AWS, Azure), roadmaps aiming for millions of qubits, recent acquisitions boosting capabilities. Aggressive growth potential but volatile as a smaller pure play. 
• Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) Focuses on superconducting qubits (similar to IBM/Google approaches). Builds its own chips, offers cloud access, hybrid quantum classical emphasis. Has shown strong recent momentum as a pure play. 
• D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS) Pioneer in quantum annealing, which is particularly good for optimization problems (already has commercial users in logistics, etc.). Different approach from gate based systems; more near term practical applications in some areas. 
• Big diversified plays for lower (but still significant) risk:
• IBM (NYSE: IBM) Long time leader with superconducting systems, full stack ecosystem, many deployed systems, clear roadmap to error corrected machines. More stable blue chip exposure. 
• Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), Alphabet/Google (GOOGL), Honeywell (NASDAQ: HON) (via Quantinuum) All have major quantum initiatives/cloud platforms. You get quantum upside plus their core businesses. 
Others like Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) exist for more speculative/photonic approaches, but they’re even riskier.
This is not financial advice just my research and thinking. Quantum could be huge or face delays/failures (technical, competition, hype cycles). High volatility, potential dilution, long timelines before mainstream commercial scale. Diversify, position size small, and be prepared to hold long term.
What do you reckon, Aus investors? Anyone else looking at quantum? Got thoughts on timelines, specific companies, or better ways to play it (ETFs like Defiance Quantum, etc.)? Or am I too early/crazy? Would love discussion on risks vs. the classical chip saturation angle.
Cheers!